Some thoughts on gold

I don't trade gold but I use it as indicator of the market, however this TA could be useful for those who trade it.

If you check the monthly chart it looks like in some sort of weird cup and handle although it's not shaped "by book" and could be something else. If it is C&H then price could go around 2900 USD in case of breakout but I think it's too much unless recession blows up. However if the M candlestick closes like this (12 days to go) we'll see a retracement.
Montly chart:

Looking at the daily to establish where the retracement could go I have two options:
1) yellow path: price bounces on that OB and then goes back up. In this case the breakout I mentioned speaking about the M chart could be possible;
2) blue path: price bounces over the OB but only to capitulate further in that FVG down there. Note that the lower border of the FVG rectangle is the montly opening price and volume profile shows many transaction in that level.

My opinion is that if recession blows up and inflation keeps being on these level we can see a possible break out because people will move to gold but I don't think it'll go up to 2900 USD. On the two possible paths honestly I have no idea, I'll just adapt.

I hope these TA can be helpful.

Good luck

Comment:

I went to look at gold just because from time to time I do that and I found this old TA which was pretty much accurate. I expect this to go up until that yellow line (resistance) will be tested although with 5 days to end the month a monthly almost-bearish candle could form as you can see from the monthly chart

monthly:

weekly: