XAUUSD Swing Trade

Daily showing a nice bullish bias here. We can expect a possible small drop to the lows of the Asian session, but you can enter here provided your position is sized properly. If you're patient, a better entry can likely be found a few dollars lower. Perhaps 1902. That may or may not happen, but what I know for certain is that the Daily has shown a bullish signal here. We have a swing low that has shown willingness to trade up from yesterday's close, on today's daily candle.

I don't think gold is done with it's correction overall, but just given what we see here, we could see a nice swing trade up for the next day or three.

I haven't taken this yet but it's very likely that I will. First, I'd like to wait and see if we have any fakeouts on the 15 minute chart where I can get a nicer entry below the Asian session lows.


Good luck.

PS, there is a reason that I listed target 3, but if this trade works out nicely, I'm more comfortable taking the majority of profit on target 2. Especially because it's election week - the most challenging week of the year for traders. Caution should be the name of the game for us right now.

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I'm hoping to be able to get a long at 1902.5. That's the level that should be defended most strongly, so even if we fall a bit below that, that's the level I'm currently eyeing. We might not get that, but I doubt we'll just go straight up so soon after midnight. Usually, both sides of the market get run at least a little bit before the London session.

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I'm hoping for something like this.

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It's hard to say if we're going to end up with that nice low entry. I'm going to start taking small pieces pretty soon if we don't drop. It's already a little too high for the "run the Asian session high/low" narrative.

Of course, the market can do whatever it wants. =)

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I know this is a high entry, but I am picking up some around 1909. Took a fifth of a normal position, and I will try to get in 4 more orders between now and the NY retracement zone. I'm happy to let these sit slightly red for a short period of time, I am confident in the daily chart right now. That said, there's no excuse not to have a certain measure of patience here. No need to go rushing into anything.

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Ok, a couple better entries there. I'm giving up on 1902 a little bit, but I have plenty of capital allocated for XAU if that should be the case.

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That kinda looked like a small 79% retracement. Those are pretty unreliable usually, but during the London session around this time, it's a thing. We'll see.

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If we stay below the gold trend line, 1902 is quite possible. Trading away from that is a bearish signal, but this is all on the 3 minute timeframe. Now, that doesn't make it invalid, but the issue is, it's so easy for many factors to completely ignore this tiny intraday price action. It's fun to watch, and can be very educational, but overall the most important thing to do is remember the daily narrative is bullish. We can't always get the best entries, but I try to, because that gives us a much better scenario in the event that we have to close at a loss, or our higher TF idea is invalidated. So, if you have trouble with managing yourself on the lower timeframes, just stick to the daily idea. If you're intermediate level, or you are wanting to expand and learn, challenge yourself by dropping down to the 15 minute, 5m, 3m, and try to see if you can use them to catch these "perfect" entries.

No trader is perfect - but any trader can catch a perfect trade =)

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Seems like a decent spot, though

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If you noticed my fibs moved a bit, It's because I draw to the candle close, not the wicks. So, when I drop timeframes I do move them. We're trying to find the right narrative for what we're trying to do - on the higher timeframe that would be finding a bias. On a lower timeframe, it's finding entries.

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Something else to note.

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Notice how price reacts to old highs and lows. This is because there are likely to be buy stops and sell stops around those areas. We can use them to anticipate moves on the smaller timeframes and plan for what is or isn't reasonable to shoot for.

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Wow nice we did get our lower entries.

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My 1902.5 buy limit filled exactly, my broker went down to exactly 1902.40 =D

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Ok, so im all set to go with this trade, I'm looking for gold to stay above 1898. It could range and chop for a bit this morning, but in the next 24 - 30 hours we should get a really decent bullish followthrough.

If we drop below 1898, I'll start watching closely, but unless that alarm trips I'm going to just leave it alone and focus on other things

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With this particular daily swing setup, sometimes the first candle trading above the swing low candles isn't the one with the follow through. I have seen it give the signal, trade down a bit, and then follow through the next day. There's know way to know which it will be, but it's a daily setup so obviously you have to be a little more patient than with a regular swing trade.

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I am somewhat surprised to see we traded below yesterdays daily candle, but that does happen sometimes. I'll keep everything as is unless tomorrow night rolls around and we're still below 1900 then. I expect we rally long before that, nothing crazy, but the first and probably second targets should definitely come later today or early tomorrow.

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I won't add any more positions here though, "averaging down" past your initial trade plan is a great way to lose money.