Gold: How long can Gold go down?
" Let's buy Gold now. I cannot drop more"...Are you sure?
Let's take a look at the fundamentals and technicals:
We will continue with our latest chart.
Fundamentally:
The Market needs a catalyst to reverse the current trend. It is not realistic to be bullish on gold in the near term as the U.S. dollar and equity markets continue to dominate investor interest. Additionally, there is no physical demand for Gold. The U.S. dollar is unlikely to fall back because of growing trade tensions and further interest-rates hikes. DXY is above 95 and if it breaks above 95.50, a new scenario will begin.( You can check the attached DXY analysis) Under these circumstances, we do not think that Gold will have a sustainable recovery.
When can this environment change for Gold Market? The growing concern regarding U.S. economic growth in the second half of the year and ongoing global trade tensions rising could be the catalysts needed to reverse gold’s trend. But not now. Not in near term.
Technically:
All timeframes and indicators are bearish. As we have mentioned in our previous forecast, Gold tested 1204 and pulled back after US NFP. The Fractal Channel upper line tested. And Gold ended the week at 1213.
Our prediction is 1204 and 1198 will be tested in this environment.1180 can be the logical level to buy Gold. ( depending on the DXY )
We will just copy/paste from our latest analysis:
1204 and 1198 are the key levels. The problem will start if Gold 0.49% prices break below 1198. Fibonacci 61.8% of the latest Bullish Move – Nov 2105 Jul 2016 – will be the decision level: 1187 USD.
Key Levels on the SMALLER chart timeframes:
Downside: 1204 1198 1187
Upside: 1218 1234 1257
We will update for the members if we see any change in the picture.
You can read our previous Gold analysis to get a better idea.
Let's take a look at the fundamentals and technicals:
We will continue with our latest chart.
Fundamentally:
The Market needs a catalyst to reverse the current trend. It is not realistic to be bullish on gold in the near term as the U.S. dollar and equity markets continue to dominate investor interest. Additionally, there is no physical demand for Gold. The U.S. dollar is unlikely to fall back because of growing trade tensions and further interest-rates hikes. DXY is above 95 and if it breaks above 95.50, a new scenario will begin.( You can check the attached DXY analysis) Under these circumstances, we do not think that Gold will have a sustainable recovery.
When can this environment change for Gold Market? The growing concern regarding U.S. economic growth in the second half of the year and ongoing global trade tensions rising could be the catalysts needed to reverse gold’s trend. But not now. Not in near term.
Technically:
All timeframes and indicators are bearish. As we have mentioned in our previous forecast, Gold tested 1204 and pulled back after US NFP. The Fractal Channel upper line tested. And Gold ended the week at 1213.
Our prediction is 1204 and 1198 will be tested in this environment.1180 can be the logical level to buy Gold. ( depending on the DXY )
We will just copy/paste from our latest analysis:
1204 and 1198 are the key levels. The problem will start if Gold 0.49% prices break below 1198. Fibonacci 61.8% of the latest Bullish Move – Nov 2105 Jul 2016 – will be the decision level: 1187 USD.
Key Levels on the SMALLER chart timeframes:
Downside: 1204 1198 1187
Upside: 1218 1234 1257
We will update for the members if we see any change in the picture.
You can read our previous Gold analysis to get a better idea.
Comment:
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