Gold - Most probable overall picture
Considering CPI data, USD continues to grow strong even today with a drastic break low of the consolidating rising wedge, invalidating the possible double bottoms from earlier. We are also expecting a new interest rate hike on 21rst September 2022 FOMC meeting, as already hinted by Powell. Now the picture that follows suggests the continued bearish trend for the yellow metal. I have highlighted a few areas of interest for the coming few days on the chart. The bears continue to roar the XAUUSD market as they exit the rising wedge consolidation today with CPI news (Although we have a clear break low on H4 but I would like to see the daily candle closing lower).
Therefore, the chances are that:
1- We might see a retest of 1680
2- If we break lower than 1680, the next level in line is 1655-58, considering the ABCD pattern targets. (We might retest 1680 from lower and continue to the bearish slide. However, it is paramount that we see at least one weekly open below 1680 to consider it dead for good)
3- If daily candle closes as a proper engulfing as it is now, we have another technical confirmation to sell
This analysis is invalid if:
1- Bulls manage to break 1734, then it is almost imminent that we will see the rectangular resistance region between 1748-55 tested for a possible reversal
2- We see a triple bottom, if price bounces from 1687 or around to go retest 1728-1734 again (1733 is also the 0.236 Fibo retracement level of the month of August, 2022)
3- If 1748-55 does not hold and we see a weekly candle above it, we can deem bearish trend officially and possibly over and we can expect a ranging market as we approach the end of the year
Suggestion:
1- If you see 1690, it is recommended to wait for the price to decide about 1680. It is a clear 250 pips signal at least (below and above it i.e. 1655-58 or 1710-12), regardless if it breaks lower or bounces back. Therefore, it could present an opportunity for both sides.
2- Take extra care of your capital, ensure proper risk management, no matter how strong the signal could be.
Happy trading and happier profits :-)
Therefore, the chances are that:
1- We might see a retest of 1680
2- If we break lower than 1680, the next level in line is 1655-58, considering the ABCD pattern targets. (We might retest 1680 from lower and continue to the bearish slide. However, it is paramount that we see at least one weekly open below 1680 to consider it dead for good)
3- If daily candle closes as a proper engulfing as it is now, we have another technical confirmation to sell
This analysis is invalid if:
1- Bulls manage to break 1734, then it is almost imminent that we will see the rectangular resistance region between 1748-55 tested for a possible reversal
2- We see a triple bottom, if price bounces from 1687 or around to go retest 1728-1734 again (1733 is also the 0.236 Fibo retracement level of the month of August, 2022)
3- If 1748-55 does not hold and we see a weekly candle above it, we can deem bearish trend officially and possibly over and we can expect a ranging market as we approach the end of the year
Suggestion:
1- If you see 1690, it is recommended to wait for the price to decide about 1680. It is a clear 250 pips signal at least (below and above it i.e. 1655-58 or 1710-12), regardless if it breaks lower or bounces back. Therefore, it could present an opportunity for both sides.
2- Take extra care of your capital, ensure proper risk management, no matter how strong the signal could be.
Happy trading and happier profits :-)
Comment:
Bearish engulfing on Daily timeframe confirmed
Comment:
The pattern ABCD is completed :-) Now after correction, we should be heading for lower line of the bearish channel.