marcyacoub

GOLD: Time to Shine?

Long
SAXO:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
From a technical perspective, Gold may have finished 4 waves up (Grand Cycle), and looks like it is preparing for an impulsive wave for big wave 5 that is currently missing. Additionally, wave 4 looks like it has finished five ABCDE waves with wave A being complex WXY inside this triangular form which is also known to be a continuation pattern for more upside. Similar to the analysis I posted 2 weeks ago on the lower timeframe, the $1,758 area is still for me a critical level to watch, and not breaking below it may be an amazing buy opportunity for a long-term trade towards new highs.

Our targets will be $1,864 and $1,982. Breaking above them will push Gold towards $2,173, $2,303, and even $2,568!

From a fundamental perspective, I still believe that it is very hard for the Fed to control and fight inflation. Although Jerome Powell is still insisting that inflation is not a big deal and that the Fed will use its tools to fight it; however, fighting inflation and hiking up interest rates will also have bad implications on the U.S. economy such as the bankruptcy of the U.S. government by defaulting on the national debt and the burst of all bubbles whether it's the stock market, the housing market, the crypto market, etc...

It's either hyperinflation or the worst depression ever. Inflation today is around 7% using a rigged CPI. Imagine how much inflation could have been If the Fed uses the same CPI used during the 1970s, inflation would easily be above 15%. The only way for the Fed to fight inflation is by implementing positive interest rates. Even if they decide to increase rates to 1.75% by mid-2022 or 2023, this will do nothing for inflation if inflation continues to worsen which I expect to do.

What the U.S. economy needs now is going back to a sound money system, free-market capitalism, and cut government spending and intervention.
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