XAUUSD - Weekly Outlook (May 24 to 28)
Dear traders,
My gold analysis is primarily based on support/resistance, fibonacci retracement and trend lines.
I believe that Gold might be trying to repeat the topping pattern formed between Aug 29, 2011 to Oct 1, 2012.
and we are at the last leg up, similar to one formed from Aug 2012 to Oct 2012.
- Gold took almost exactly 1 year to retrace from then the all time high of 1921.070 on Sept 2011, to the lowest at 1522.764)
- using Fibo retracement, we found that the Oct 2012 peak @1796.001 is almost exactly retraced at .786 of the all time high retracement.
- looking at monthly, we see that gold is forming a rising wedge pattern. It's highly likely that gold will be kept under 2110 level of the top riseing wedge channel. (of course not 100% guaranteed).
WIth this premise in mind, we can look at current:
- Our current high: Aug 3, 2020 @ 2075.282
- Our current low: Mar 8, 2021 @ 1676.866
- See Blue down trend on 4H chart.
Critical point:
On May 17, 2021, we have plowed through the upper blue channel in a very bullish manner, and retested after FOMC on May 19, 2021 @ 1855.00
- From this day onwards, i have to change my bias completely to bullish sentiment, because a critical down trend has been broken and retested.
- Unless we somehow break below the blue trend, otherwise, I see the rising yellow trend line to hold in the foreseeable future. (see yellow arrow)
- a possible retest at 1847 around jun 1, 2021 can still be considered as bullish. (see green arrow)
1 more critical point:
gold has broken above the neckline of the W-shaped pattern at 1876-77 level. This will become our new support.
- Only if this is broken below, will we consider a slightly less bullish move, which is to retest 1845-1855 level, before we move up.
If 76-77 level holds, which it seems it will (especially after supposedly bearish CPI news for gold), I have a very strong believe that gold will continue to strike higher targets.
- Near term: 1895 - 1901 resistance zone.
- next target zone: 1922-24 resistance zone
- final target zone: 1955-59 resistance zone. (Also, 0.786 retracement level of the current retracement from our all time top)
Can gold break the monthly rising wedge?? I highly doubt it. But one thing for sure is, current trend is bullish.
My gold analysis is primarily based on support/resistance, fibonacci retracement and trend lines.
I believe that Gold might be trying to repeat the topping pattern formed between Aug 29, 2011 to Oct 1, 2012.
and we are at the last leg up, similar to one formed from Aug 2012 to Oct 2012.
- Gold took almost exactly 1 year to retrace from then the all time high of 1921.070 on Sept 2011, to the lowest at 1522.764)
- using Fibo retracement, we found that the Oct 2012 peak @1796.001 is almost exactly retraced at .786 of the all time high retracement.
- looking at monthly, we see that gold is forming a rising wedge pattern. It's highly likely that gold will be kept under 2110 level of the top riseing wedge channel. (of course not 100% guaranteed).
WIth this premise in mind, we can look at current:
- Our current high: Aug 3, 2020 @ 2075.282
- Our current low: Mar 8, 2021 @ 1676.866
- See Blue down trend on 4H chart.
Critical point:
On May 17, 2021, we have plowed through the upper blue channel in a very bullish manner, and retested after FOMC on May 19, 2021 @ 1855.00
- From this day onwards, i have to change my bias completely to bullish sentiment, because a critical down trend has been broken and retested.
- Unless we somehow break below the blue trend, otherwise, I see the rising yellow trend line to hold in the foreseeable future. (see yellow arrow)
- a possible retest at 1847 around jun 1, 2021 can still be considered as bullish. (see green arrow)
1 more critical point:
gold has broken above the neckline of the W-shaped pattern at 1876-77 level. This will become our new support.
- Only if this is broken below, will we consider a slightly less bullish move, which is to retest 1845-1855 level, before we move up.
If 76-77 level holds, which it seems it will (especially after supposedly bearish CPI news for gold), I have a very strong believe that gold will continue to strike higher targets.
- Near term: 1895 - 1901 resistance zone.
- next target zone: 1922-24 resistance zone
- final target zone: 1955-59 resistance zone. (Also, 0.786 retracement level of the current retracement from our all time top)
Can gold break the monthly rising wedge?? I highly doubt it. But one thing for sure is, current trend is bullish.
Comment:
will appreciate anyone expert in EW to help verify and do the wave count.
cheers!
cheers!
but basically,
Two bullish scenarios:
1) If coming week we stay above 1876-1877, we will go straight up.
2) if we break below 1876-77 and also 1868 level, we may touch 1850, and then bounce up