Why i'm (almost) certainly bullish on GOLD
Hello traders,
For some time my bias was bearish on gold till recent price action started to show a true reversal signs. I have analysed all time price of gold since 2006 till now and these are my assumptions:
- 2006 - 2012 : Gold traded in an ascending channel, which was invalidated by the following symmetrical triangle;
- 2011 - 2013 : Symmetrical triangle was broken impulsively leading us to the following new pattern;
- 2013 - 2017 : Falling wedge that lasted 5 years, where its upper trendline was violated and tested multiple times in the means of a number of head and shoulders and triangles patterns. This led us to where it all started for the situation where we are currently;
- 2017 - current : A replicate of the 2006 - 2012 channel is created , where Gold still respected its trendlines, and till now stayed within its boundaries. While past price action and performance is no guarantee of future results, yet it still give us some correlations and commonalities on how Gold behave.
- lastly, 2020 - current: while many believed (including me) that history repeat itself over and over again and that gold will continue dropping as it did in 2012. However, looking and comparing the price action and patterns so far, is that the difference is quite the opposite. While the ascending channel in 2012 was ended by a symmetrical triangle after lasting for 6 years, the current channel however didn't reach its pivot yet, let alone breaking out of it.
That said, I believe that we are still in the beginning of a bullish cycle and that gold is far from violating the ascending channel, regardless of the current situation.
All the best and trade safe.
Mamou
PS. this analysis is no more valid if ascending channel lower trendline is invalidated.
For some time my bias was bearish on gold till recent price action started to show a true reversal signs. I have analysed all time price of gold since 2006 till now and these are my assumptions:
- 2006 - 2012 : Gold traded in an ascending channel, which was invalidated by the following symmetrical triangle;
- 2011 - 2013 : Symmetrical triangle was broken impulsively leading us to the following new pattern;
- 2013 - 2017 : Falling wedge that lasted 5 years, where its upper trendline was violated and tested multiple times in the means of a number of head and shoulders and triangles patterns. This led us to where it all started for the situation where we are currently;
- 2017 - current : A replicate of the 2006 - 2012 channel is created , where Gold still respected its trendlines, and till now stayed within its boundaries. While past price action and performance is no guarantee of future results, yet it still give us some correlations and commonalities on how Gold behave.
- lastly, 2020 - current: while many believed (including me) that history repeat itself over and over again and that gold will continue dropping as it did in 2012. However, looking and comparing the price action and patterns so far, is that the difference is quite the opposite. While the ascending channel in 2012 was ended by a symmetrical triangle after lasting for 6 years, the current channel however didn't reach its pivot yet, let alone breaking out of it.
That said, I believe that we are still in the beginning of a bullish cycle and that gold is far from violating the ascending channel, regardless of the current situation.
All the best and trade safe.
Mamou
PS. this analysis is no more valid if ascending channel lower trendline is invalidated.
For the moment, I believe gold will go back to test the falling wedge which was broken sometime ago and bounce up again from there. This retracement move is necessary to provide the enough liquidity and power that enables gold to push higher and breaks 1800.