GOLD, will CPI news confirm the downtrend?
Hello everyone,
after a predicted pullback from 1980 area Gold reached it's highest point at 2088 and turned bearish again. To be honest I didn't expect the move to extend so high, but these things can happen. Finally it's likely that Gold topped out wave B at 2088 and started wave C with the main target at 1920. So far nothing new (check my latest analysis).
How will CPI news effect Gold tomorrow?
There is no clear answer to this question, as we have to observe the next move of the dollar, which started a slight counter trend. If it will break over the local resistances formed within the last days, Gold will fall further.
Important levels for Gold
Resistance area: 2040 - 2050
Support areas: 2000 - 2010 and 1970 - 1980
Elliot wave analysis
If wave C started at 2088, we probably have seen most of the first wave down, which you can see in red on the chart. I don't see an impulsive decline, so this scenario is quiet likely. The exact position for the subwave count are always hard to figure out, so please look for confirmation before you make a trade.
Trade idea
Sell 2032-2040 with TP 2010 and SL 2051
Buy 2000-2010 with TP 2030 and SL 1998
after a predicted pullback from 1980 area Gold reached it's highest point at 2088 and turned bearish again. To be honest I didn't expect the move to extend so high, but these things can happen. Finally it's likely that Gold topped out wave B at 2088 and started wave C with the main target at 1920. So far nothing new (check my latest analysis).
How will CPI news effect Gold tomorrow?
There is no clear answer to this question, as we have to observe the next move of the dollar, which started a slight counter trend. If it will break over the local resistances formed within the last days, Gold will fall further.
Important levels for Gold
Resistance area: 2040 - 2050
Support areas: 2000 - 2010 and 1970 - 1980
Elliot wave analysis
If wave C started at 2088, we probably have seen most of the first wave down, which you can see in red on the chart. I don't see an impulsive decline, so this scenario is quiet likely. The exact position for the subwave count are always hard to figure out, so please look for confirmation before you make a trade.
Trade idea
Sell 2032-2040 with TP 2010 and SL 2051
Buy 2000-2010 with TP 2030 and SL 1998
Trade active:
CPI data came out higher than expected. I'm expecting Gold to drop, if the dollar closes bullish today. Enter the market here: 2031
Trade closed: target reached:
2017 reached, should move further, but taking first profits here and break even with the other positions.
Comment:
Please be careful with the buy trade from 2000-2010. We are in a clear downtrend now and it could break down towards 1980 directly.
Comment:
Long trade didn't got triggered. We are most likely in a wave B pullback now. I will wait for a good shorting opportunity around 2050 again.
Comment:
What happened today. Middle east conflict expands as US and GB military attacked Huthi rebels in Yemen last night. Gold broke out of the downtrend channel and reached the most important resistance level of 2060. I expected a pullback towards this level, but of course not as fast as it happened. Now I'm waiting for the weekly close to consider further actions. In general we are in a stage between the trends, which makes it harder to decide.
Comment:
Scalp idea (for those who want to trade on friday evening)
Retest of the broken downward channel
BUY 2040
SL 2035
TP 2045
Retest of the broken downward channel
BUY 2040
SL 2035
TP 2045
Comment:
Closing this idea with a very good profit, unfortunately the long trade didn't got activated, otherwise TP would have been hit here also.