we may see fifth wave to downside or upside move depending on 83$ break.
The good news for crude oil bulls is coming out of China. The potential for increased demand is there, but the country needs to do more to curb restrictions before it will show up in the economic data. Some analysts suggest some curbs will last until March. So demand may bottom, but we may not see a significant increase for six months.
The decision not to cut production by OPEC+ was no surprise. The group is probably waiting to see the impact of the Russian ban before they make a decision to cut or not cut at its Feb 1 meeting. There is still a lot of confusion as to how it is going to work and if it is going to work. If prices drop too far, OPEC+ will be there to prop them up.
On Friday, G7 nations and Australia agreed on a $60 per barrel price cap on Russian seaborne crude oil. According to Reuters, many analysts and OPEC ministers have said the price cap is confusing and probably inefficient as Moscow has been selling most of its oil to countries like China and India, which have refused to condemn the war in Ukraine.
The European Union will need to replace Russian crude with oil from the Middle East, West Africa and the United States, which should put a floor under oil prices at least in the near term.
Additionally, the end of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Releases (SPR) is also providing support.
.
The good news for crude oil bulls is coming out of China. The potential for increased demand is there, but the country needs to do more to curb restrictions before it will show up in the economic data. Some analysts suggest some curbs will last until March. So demand may bottom, but we may not see a significant increase for six months.
The decision not to cut production by OPEC+ was no surprise. The group is probably waiting to see the impact of the Russian ban before they make a decision to cut or not cut at its Feb 1 meeting. There is still a lot of confusion as to how it is going to work and if it is going to work. If prices drop too far, OPEC+ will be there to prop them up.
On Friday, G7 nations and Australia agreed on a $60 per barrel price cap on Russian seaborne crude oil. According to Reuters, many analysts and OPEC ministers have said the price cap is confusing and probably inefficient as Moscow has been selling most of its oil to countries like China and India, which have refused to condemn the war in Ukraine.
The European Union will need to replace Russian crude with oil from the Middle East, West Africa and the United States, which should put a floor under oil prices at least in the near term.
Additionally, the end of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Releases (SPR) is also providing support.
.