WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE
Fundamental Perspective - Oil's bullish rally has been primarily driven by succesful moves from OPEC and its allies, combined with an overenthusiastic market that could be getting ahead of itself. Vaccination programs and efforts are being implemented on a global( ish ) scale, but we are still very far from a global economic revcovery, or even a global economy back to pre-pandemic levels. Oil prices are as high as they were before the pandemic was even in sight, while Demand for it is not even close to prepandemic levels. Yes, China's oil demand has rebounded rapidly, but that's not exactly the case throughout the rest of the globe.
Technical Analysis Perspective - When looking at the Weekly timeframe we can observe that the last bearish push broke all the previous Lows (White Squares). In the event of Oil (Crude AND Brent) having a drastic fall in the coming weeks, it would probably be accompanied by a portion of the market.
***In the event of Saudi Arabia and OPEC+ further tightening the Oil Supply, the commodity's price would likely keep rising and eventually break through our Supply Range. Although the real question would then be: How long can this artificial scenario be sustained until there are adverse effects in the economy? (Ex. Transportation costs rising for/forcing out businesses that were already hit by the pandemic).
Fundamental Perspective - Oil's bullish rally has been primarily driven by succesful moves from OPEC and its allies, combined with an overenthusiastic market that could be getting ahead of itself. Vaccination programs and efforts are being implemented on a global( ish ) scale, but we are still very far from a global economic revcovery, or even a global economy back to pre-pandemic levels. Oil prices are as high as they were before the pandemic was even in sight, while Demand for it is not even close to prepandemic levels. Yes, China's oil demand has rebounded rapidly, but that's not exactly the case throughout the rest of the globe.
Technical Analysis Perspective - When looking at the Weekly timeframe we can observe that the last bearish push broke all the previous Lows (White Squares). In the event of Oil (Crude AND Brent) having a drastic fall in the coming weeks, it would probably be accompanied by a portion of the market.
***In the event of Saudi Arabia and OPEC+ further tightening the Oil Supply, the commodity's price would likely keep rising and eventually break through our Supply Range. Although the real question would then be: How long can this artificial scenario be sustained until there are adverse effects in the economy? (Ex. Transportation costs rising for/forcing out businesses that were already hit by the pandemic).