What if today's rally in crude and brent oil prices was nothing more than an oversold bounce after the hideous more than 30% decline from the prior few trading sessions?
We have identified a potential Head and Shoulders reversal pattern forming on the H4 chart, which might be an indication of what is to come, but before that let's look at what did the chart tell us shortly before the sharp selloff from the $125 highs began.
As you can see on the chart, there was already a smaller Head and Shoulders pattern that formed in the $107 and $127 range, with the two shoulders of the figure lining up almost perfectly at $114 per barrel and the massive head topping around the $125 highs. On March 10th we saw the initial break of the neckline of the bearish reversal formation with the subsequent retest of the neckline from below respecting it as a new resistance. Every Head and Shoulders pattern projects a potential reversal move roughly equal to the size of the Head of the formation. In this case, the Head was equal to $125 (Highest point) - $108 (Neckline) = $17. Guess what.. after breaking the neckline of the above-described figure the Oil price fell from $109 per barrel to $93 per barrel, which was precisely $16 before staging today's sharp intra-day rally.
What caught our attention is that today's massive rally could be actually forming the right shoulder of a much more massive Head and Shoulders pattern, with the following parameters: Shoulders within the $100-103 range, a Head of $31 dollars and a neckline around $94. To put it simply, if the price reverses course from current levels and ends up breaking below the $94 neckline support, we might be in for a vicious sell-off that could end up taking the price below the $70 mark.
Now, please keep in mind that this is a hypothetical scenario and that the figure has not yet formed. A typical entry point for a Head and Shoulders pattern is considered to be the breaking of the figure's neckline, which in this case would occur if the price drops below the $94 per barrel level on a closing basis.
However, considering the effectiveness of the prior Head and Shoulders signal that we got, we wanted to share it with you.
We have identified a potential Head and Shoulders reversal pattern forming on the H4 chart, which might be an indication of what is to come, but before that let's look at what did the chart tell us shortly before the sharp selloff from the $125 highs began.
As you can see on the chart, there was already a smaller Head and Shoulders pattern that formed in the $107 and $127 range, with the two shoulders of the figure lining up almost perfectly at $114 per barrel and the massive head topping around the $125 highs. On March 10th we saw the initial break of the neckline of the bearish reversal formation with the subsequent retest of the neckline from below respecting it as a new resistance. Every Head and Shoulders pattern projects a potential reversal move roughly equal to the size of the Head of the formation. In this case, the Head was equal to $125 (Highest point) - $108 (Neckline) = $17. Guess what.. after breaking the neckline of the above-described figure the Oil price fell from $109 per barrel to $93 per barrel, which was precisely $16 before staging today's sharp intra-day rally.
What caught our attention is that today's massive rally could be actually forming the right shoulder of a much more massive Head and Shoulders pattern, with the following parameters: Shoulders within the $100-103 range, a Head of $31 dollars and a neckline around $94. To put it simply, if the price reverses course from current levels and ends up breaking below the $94 neckline support, we might be in for a vicious sell-off that could end up taking the price below the $70 mark.
Now, please keep in mind that this is a hypothetical scenario and that the figure has not yet formed. A typical entry point for a Head and Shoulders pattern is considered to be the breaking of the figure's neckline, which in this case would occur if the price drops below the $94 per barrel level on a closing basis.
However, considering the effectiveness of the prior Head and Shoulders signal that we got, we wanted to share it with you.