Turkish Lira - Big Frame TA

Hello.


According to my (theoretical) Model, Lira is Trading in a exponential downward curve channel and about to drop arround 50% soon.
Its currently Trading near the Support Curve, after we saw a 2nd Retest and i think its about time we go to median and Resistance Curve.

Thats where i plan to buy Lira. Personally not shorting Lira.

Its pretty theoretical yet, but lets see what the coming month´s bring.

Do yourself a favor and do your own Research.

Please leave a like if you liked this. :)

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Lira possibly already in a sub-exponential downward trend

Just a theory tho

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Thats what i expect the coming Week´s..

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Im recommending to take some profits arround 10.6-11

There could be a bigger correction there, as im not sure if the big drop is coming yet

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Here´s an eur/try chart:

The red line needs to break in order for lira to crash for real.

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dont forget to take some profit at median as im not sure if we go in a months long correction soon. The real lira crash may not come yet but mid next year.

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We may correct some months from here. In case red line breaks, lira could drop another 30%.

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median broke, get ready to test support curve. this worked out well.

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resistance curve*

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this can go as high as 17usd/try

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There´s still more to go, late longers got washed and and we should continue now

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but a correction would make sense here too as you can see in eur/try chart (im mainly charting lira with eur, not usd).

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altho this could go to ~17usd (highest possible target according to my TA) i think its a good time to close (atleast partially) soon.

Mid Next year is Election in turkey. and if erdogan doesnt get elected again, it is actually possible that Lira leave´s the parabolic downward trend.

Lira will atleast have a big correction upward and market will price in that erdogan possibly wont get elected again. I will propably open a new Idea for a Lira long position soon. Altho knife catching could be difficult. Stay tuned =)

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Lira long setup will be based on this Try/Eur chart...just a little preview.
Will post a new Idea for this soon for USD/Try

Trade closed: target reached:

I hereby close this Idea. Yes, according to my try/eur chart (see above) we could go up another 20-25% but i would rather focus on longing lira soon then still "betting" on this 20% upward potential on usdtry. if you still in this trade i recommend closing atleast 70% of youre position. will post usdtry short soon. (dont recommend going short right here on usdtry as my original idea may suggest)

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Just published my USDTRY Short Setup

See Related Ideas below.

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Dont get me wrong, i dont recommend shorting red curve. The red curve was a conservative target for the long. i put up another idea for a USDTRY short with entry at ~18usd. dyor

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In case you are into Turkish Stock market too here´s my prognosis of the coming weeks:

It doesnt look good for stocks as i expect a -50% decline soon. Important Supp seems broken and Turkish stock market is at the edge of dropping hard soon. (Propably because rising interest rates and recent Lira decline)

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If we are touching the green curve on this Idea again soon, i will long USDTRY (again xD)

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By the way i dont think cryptocurrency are a good store of value, so i dont recommend changing lira to crypto.

And also stay away from Tether (USDT), better use USDC.