We are seeing a T3 Divergence on the monthly RSI 14 and daily slow MACD.
We do not have any 5 moving average support on the monthly until 3.78.
We often pullback even a bit below this, to the 2nd or 3rd support moving average.
And of course, eventually, there will be a much deeper pullback. With geopolitical tensions over the past years, this has made it difficult to invest in Turkey. However, if a country is to not go completely destitute, bulls must come in and stabilize the currency. This always happens unless the country is to be destroyed. Look at Russia after hitting 78 and 85 to the dollar. Buying emerging market currencies in war zones can be risky. However, most of the time when there is risk, there is also a great reward to be made. Most of the time, the news is faded. Especially when bears push an economy to its breaking point in a relative cycle. I imagine the USDTRY will remain below 4.50 for 1-3 years, with some potential upside in price appreciation (and remember the yield). The carry trade via the yen is there with a USDJPY below 110.00. I don't have actual data on this, but I see the USDJPY forming potential strength on the weekly chart here as well. I imagine its a play some are willing to take on.
We do not have any 5 moving average support on the monthly until 3.78.
We often pullback even a bit below this, to the 2nd or 3rd support moving average.
And of course, eventually, there will be a much deeper pullback. With geopolitical tensions over the past years, this has made it difficult to invest in Turkey. However, if a country is to not go completely destitute, bulls must come in and stabilize the currency. This always happens unless the country is to be destroyed. Look at Russia after hitting 78 and 85 to the dollar. Buying emerging market currencies in war zones can be risky. However, most of the time when there is risk, there is also a great reward to be made. Most of the time, the news is faded. Especially when bears push an economy to its breaking point in a relative cycle. I imagine the USDTRY will remain below 4.50 for 1-3 years, with some potential upside in price appreciation (and remember the yield). The carry trade via the yen is there with a USDJPY below 110.00. I don't have actual data on this, but I see the USDJPY forming potential strength on the weekly chart here as well. I imagine its a play some are willing to take on.
