News background and trading ideas for 10/05/2018

As we announced, yesterday was relatively calm in the news. Regarding the dynamics of assets, the day can be called correctional, in the run-up to the publication of statistics on the labor market in the United States. The data will determine if the dollar experienced temporary difficulties yesterday, or if the concerns are more long-term. Read about our position regarding the NFP and the possible reaction of the dollar in a separate review.
Since Thursday was relatively quiet in fundamental terms, let's talk about the rumors that circulate in the markets. Eventually, rumors are also an essential component of the media environment.
Regarding such news, it is worth mentioning the information that Russia and Saudi Arabia (so far secretly) have agreed to increase production. We are talking about volumes of about 0.5 million b/d. Basically, nothing new - we have already written this week that Russia has reached record volumes of oil production. But for us in this news, the information vector is much more interesting. So it seems to be starting to turn around and look to the south. Another confirmation of the reversal is the rumors that Iran has figured out how to circumvent US sanctions. What does this mean? As much as- the elimination of the cause of oil increase in the last few weeks. All this confirms our strategic trading idea - oil sales.

Another of our basic trading ideas - the sale of the Russian ruble had confirmed yesterday in the form of a sharply lower of the Russian currency. It happened amid the information that the UK wants to discuss with its allies the issue of new sanctions against Russia. Naturally, the bad news for the ruble. Especially in the light of the potentially destructive US sanctions against Russian debt and Russia's access to external financing. Our position is unchanged - sell the Russian ruble.
And once again we remind that today is a significant day for the dollar regarding macroeconomic statistics (data on the labor market). In pairs with the Canadian dollar will be intensive either (statistics on the labor market and foreign trade balance).