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Despite growing expectations for a rate cut by the Fed, Japan has seen a weakening yen amid the Bank of Japan's decision to halt its negative interest rate policy. Today's BOJ core CPI, at 2.3%, fell short of the expected 2.5%, but has not shown significant impact. Potential game-changers this week include the PCE price index and Chair Powell's speech.
- On March 29th, the US will release the February Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index.
- On March 30th, Chair Powell is scheduled to deliver a speech.
- Japan's Finance Minister has stated readiness to intervene in the currency market if necessary, without ruling out any options and taking appropriate actions.
Thanks to the weakening yen, USDJPY has risen to the 152 level. However, it has yet to break through this level. If it does, we may see further gains up to the 156 level. Conversely, failure to breach this level may lead to a downward trend towards the support line.
In summary of expected movements:
First, short-term rally up to 156 if the 152 level is breached.
Second, medium-term rally after retreating to the 150 level due to resistance at 152.
Third, medium to long-term rally after retreating to the 145 level, where the support line lies, due to resistance at 152.
We should consider the variables posed by this week's US February Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index and Chair Powell's speech. We will adjust our strategy accordingly if there are unexpected movements.
Please share your personal opinions in the comments. We kindly ask for your support with likes and subscriptions.
Despite growing expectations for a rate cut by the Fed, Japan has seen a weakening yen amid the Bank of Japan's decision to halt its negative interest rate policy. Today's BOJ core CPI, at 2.3%, fell short of the expected 2.5%, but has not shown significant impact. Potential game-changers this week include the PCE price index and Chair Powell's speech.
- On March 29th, the US will release the February Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index.
- On March 30th, Chair Powell is scheduled to deliver a speech.
- Japan's Finance Minister has stated readiness to intervene in the currency market if necessary, without ruling out any options and taking appropriate actions.
Thanks to the weakening yen, USDJPY has risen to the 152 level. However, it has yet to break through this level. If it does, we may see further gains up to the 156 level. Conversely, failure to breach this level may lead to a downward trend towards the support line.
In summary of expected movements:
First, short-term rally up to 156 if the 152 level is breached.
Second, medium-term rally after retreating to the 150 level due to resistance at 152.
Third, medium to long-term rally after retreating to the 145 level, where the support line lies, due to resistance at 152.
We should consider the variables posed by this week's US February Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index and Chair Powell's speech. We will adjust our strategy accordingly if there are unexpected movements.