Would love a big wipe out move to long USDJPY around 154.30
Life as a USDJPY buyer has been good, as I proposed it may be in my swing long USDJPY thesis.
Market is up several 100 pips and it's paying swaps daily just to hold. What's not to love?
But it's starting to feel a bit easy. If it keeps being easy, I'll keep longing with tight stops under structure but my current bias skews more towards the short side.
Have some shorts on now at 146.90. Close to quitting on them but will hold them while we're under 156.70.
Hit a bunch of trailing stops shortly before the huge dump and swings trades I have that didn't hit stops I tightened them up after we rebounded.
USDJPY may have made the correction and be in a new breakout. Strong up can continue if so.
But this smells a lot like a false breakout.
When false breakouts happen, nasty moves to the other side are the norm.
Right now this is the bigger risk/opportunity to consider.
If we keep breaking out, I'll keep buying. I'm very bullish on USDJPY. Just don't want to get caught noobing into longs right before a bigger C leg style correction.
If it remains possible to buy with 5 - 8 pip stops and ride upmoves, I'll do that but I think the broader bull case would be better with a big bear move soon.
Market is up several 100 pips and it's paying swaps daily just to hold. What's not to love?
But it's starting to feel a bit easy. If it keeps being easy, I'll keep longing with tight stops under structure but my current bias skews more towards the short side.
Have some shorts on now at 146.90. Close to quitting on them but will hold them while we're under 156.70.
Hit a bunch of trailing stops shortly before the huge dump and swings trades I have that didn't hit stops I tightened them up after we rebounded.
USDJPY may have made the correction and be in a new breakout. Strong up can continue if so.
But this smells a lot like a false breakout.
When false breakouts happen, nasty moves to the other side are the norm.
Right now this is the bigger risk/opportunity to consider.
If we keep breaking out, I'll keep buying. I'm very bullish on USDJPY. Just don't want to get caught noobing into longs right before a bigger C leg style correction.
If it remains possible to buy with 5 - 8 pip stops and ride upmoves, I'll do that but I think the broader bull case would be better with a big bear move soon.