USDJPY BULLISH WILL Go to 180 Yen
the Bank of Japan is unlikely to increase its ultra-loose policy rate until Governor Kuroda's term expires in the first quarter of 2023.
A break below 124is the start of bearish trend.
Technical: BULLISH
STRATEGY
BUY THE CORRECTION
Higher Highs
Higher Lows
Fundamentals:
See my previouse USDJPY trade ideas.All Tades are active, and a lot of fundamental explanations of USDJPY. Read them.Undestand them,then you can mae good trades.
Japan has kept interest rates at 0% since the global financial crisis in 2008.
Japan’s current interest rate is -0.10% which has been in place since January 2016.
Wven an interest rate rise will hold the bullish trend.
Japan must increase its interest rates to minimum 5points, to make eve, and make Yen more attractive. And this neve will happen duing the next 5-10 years!!!!!
As the yen continues to depreciate, and the inflation rate is expected to accelerate in the coming months, what are analysts’ forecasts for Japan's interest rate in 5 years?
The BoJ has projected in January that long-term rates could rise from 0.3% seen this fiscal year, to 0.4% in 2023-2025, before climbing eventually to 3.1% in fiscal 2032. The projections show that a 0.5 percentage-point rise in long-term rates would add 3.3 percentage points to the debt-to-GDP ratio.
Fitch Ratings and ING expected the Bank of Japan interest rate would remain unchanged at -0.1% until the end of 2024.
BofA expected the Bank of Japan to hold the ultra-loose policy rate through the remainder of Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s tenure, and any policy normalisation would be delayed until new leadership came in after April 2023, despite pressure from the weaker yen.
The yen is likley to benefit later in 2023, as we believe the BoJ will eventually end its yield curve control policy and the Japanese bond yields will rise
Therefor traders will sell yen more excessively before this happens.
A decline in long-end U.S. yields and a peaking out in terminal rate expectations into 2023, alongside the risk of a moderate U.S. recession, should clear the runway for a lower repricing of the dollar/yen pair in 2023.
In addition, the BoJ shocked markets in December by relaxing its yield curve control (YCC) policy of pinning yields close to zero.
The central bank announced it would allow 10-year Japanese yields to climb as high as 0.5 percent, compared with 0.25 percent previously. The yen strengthened against the dollar after the news.
Electricity and gas for households registered the biggest jump of 21.5% and 20.1%, respectively. Japan is a net importer of oil and natural gas, whose prices have hit record highs amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Food prices in Japan rose by 7.3% yoy in January 2023.
The BoJ said in its January 2023 statement:
“On the price front, the year-on-year rate of change in the CPI (all items less fresh food) has been in the range of 3.5-4.0 percent due to rises in prices of such items as energy, food, and durable goods. Meanwhile, inflation expectations have risen.”
The new economic policy package will support domestic demand, partly offsetting subdued household confidence and real income. Loss of momentum in trading partner economies will moderate exports. After peaking in the course of 2022, headline consumer price inflation will fall back in late 2023 as energy prices stabilise, but then gradually increase again towards 2% in 2024 as wage growth gains momentum.
A break below 124is the start of bearish trend.
Technical: BULLISH
STRATEGY
BUY THE CORRECTION
Higher Highs
Higher Lows
Fundamentals:
See my previouse USDJPY trade ideas.All Tades are active, and a lot of fundamental explanations of USDJPY. Read them.Undestand them,then you can mae good trades.
Japan has kept interest rates at 0% since the global financial crisis in 2008.
Japan’s current interest rate is -0.10% which has been in place since January 2016.
Wven an interest rate rise will hold the bullish trend.
Japan must increase its interest rates to minimum 5points, to make eve, and make Yen more attractive. And this neve will happen duing the next 5-10 years!!!!!
As the yen continues to depreciate, and the inflation rate is expected to accelerate in the coming months, what are analysts’ forecasts for Japan's interest rate in 5 years?
The BoJ has projected in January that long-term rates could rise from 0.3% seen this fiscal year, to 0.4% in 2023-2025, before climbing eventually to 3.1% in fiscal 2032. The projections show that a 0.5 percentage-point rise in long-term rates would add 3.3 percentage points to the debt-to-GDP ratio.
Fitch Ratings and ING expected the Bank of Japan interest rate would remain unchanged at -0.1% until the end of 2024.
BofA expected the Bank of Japan to hold the ultra-loose policy rate through the remainder of Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s tenure, and any policy normalisation would be delayed until new leadership came in after April 2023, despite pressure from the weaker yen.
The yen is likley to benefit later in 2023, as we believe the BoJ will eventually end its yield curve control policy and the Japanese bond yields will rise
Therefor traders will sell yen more excessively before this happens.
A decline in long-end U.S. yields and a peaking out in terminal rate expectations into 2023, alongside the risk of a moderate U.S. recession, should clear the runway for a lower repricing of the dollar/yen pair in 2023.
In addition, the BoJ shocked markets in December by relaxing its yield curve control (YCC) policy of pinning yields close to zero.
The central bank announced it would allow 10-year Japanese yields to climb as high as 0.5 percent, compared with 0.25 percent previously. The yen strengthened against the dollar after the news.
Electricity and gas for households registered the biggest jump of 21.5% and 20.1%, respectively. Japan is a net importer of oil and natural gas, whose prices have hit record highs amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Food prices in Japan rose by 7.3% yoy in January 2023.
The BoJ said in its January 2023 statement:
“On the price front, the year-on-year rate of change in the CPI (all items less fresh food) has been in the range of 3.5-4.0 percent due to rises in prices of such items as energy, food, and durable goods. Meanwhile, inflation expectations have risen.”
The new economic policy package will support domestic demand, partly offsetting subdued household confidence and real income. Loss of momentum in trading partner economies will moderate exports. After peaking in the course of 2022, headline consumer price inflation will fall back in late 2023 as energy prices stabilise, but then gradually increase again towards 2% in 2024 as wage growth gains momentum.
Comment:
Bullish
Comment:
Week Ahead - July 17th
Next week, investors will focus on the earnings results from major US companies, such as Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, IBM, Netflix, Tesla, and Johnson & Johnson. Additionally, it will be interesting to monitor retail sales, industrial production, and housing data, including existing home sales, housing starts, and building permits. In other news, China is set to release Q2 GDP growth, retail sales, industrial production, and fixed asset investments. Markets will also be attentive to inflation rates in the United Kingdom, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, and South Africa. Furthermore, the central banks of Turkey and South Africa will make decisions regarding monetary policy, Australia will publish the unemployment rate, and the UK and Canada will release retail sales data.
Next week, investors will focus on the earnings results from major US companies, such as Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, IBM, Netflix, Tesla, and Johnson & Johnson. Additionally, it will be interesting to monitor retail sales, industrial production, and housing data, including existing home sales, housing starts, and building permits. In other news, China is set to release Q2 GDP growth, retail sales, industrial production, and fixed asset investments. Markets will also be attentive to inflation rates in the United Kingdom, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, and South Africa. Furthermore, the central banks of Turkey and South Africa will make decisions regarding monetary policy, Australia will publish the unemployment rate, and the UK and Canada will release retail sales data.
Comment:
Bond Yields Continue to Fall
Government bond yields around the world fell for a third day on Wednesday, with the US 10-year Treasury note yield retreating to 3.74%, a fresh low since late June. Investors are getting increasingly convinced that major central banks, and specially the Fed will soon end their tightening campaign. Bets for a 25bps hike in the fed funds rate next week currently stand at 97% but investors remain divided on the need of further increases, with chances for a September increase currently standing at 12% and for November at 23%. Meanwhile, the ECB is also set to raise rates by 25bps again next week while there is just a 70% chance of a further rate rise in September. In the UK, another increase in borrowing costs is seen as certain next month, but a smaller-than-expected inflation reading for June lowered bets on further BOE rate hikes. On the other hand, traders are increasingly speculating the Bank of Japan could adjust its ultra loose monetary policy next week.
European Markets Head for Higher Open
European equity markets were headed for a higher open on Wednesday as investors reacted to data showing the annual consumer inflation in the UK stood at 7.9% in June, the lowest reading since March 2022 and below forecasts of 8.2%. Investors also await final euro zone inflation figures later on Wednesday to guide the economic and monetary policy outlook in the region. Moreover, markets look ahead to the latest earnings report from Dutch chip industry giant ASML, as well as from major US firms such as Tesla, Netflix and Goldman Sachs. DAX and Stoxx 600 futures rose 0.2% in premarket trade, while FTSE 100 futures jumped 0.8%.
Government bond yields around the world fell for a third day on Wednesday, with the US 10-year Treasury note yield retreating to 3.74%, a fresh low since late June. Investors are getting increasingly convinced that major central banks, and specially the Fed will soon end their tightening campaign. Bets for a 25bps hike in the fed funds rate next week currently stand at 97% but investors remain divided on the need of further increases, with chances for a September increase currently standing at 12% and for November at 23%. Meanwhile, the ECB is also set to raise rates by 25bps again next week while there is just a 70% chance of a further rate rise in September. In the UK, another increase in borrowing costs is seen as certain next month, but a smaller-than-expected inflation reading for June lowered bets on further BOE rate hikes. On the other hand, traders are increasingly speculating the Bank of Japan could adjust its ultra loose monetary policy next week.
European Markets Head for Higher Open
European equity markets were headed for a higher open on Wednesday as investors reacted to data showing the annual consumer inflation in the UK stood at 7.9% in June, the lowest reading since March 2022 and below forecasts of 8.2%. Investors also await final euro zone inflation figures later on Wednesday to guide the economic and monetary policy outlook in the region. Moreover, markets look ahead to the latest earnings report from Dutch chip industry giant ASML, as well as from major US firms such as Tesla, Netflix and Goldman Sachs. DAX and Stoxx 600 futures rose 0.2% in premarket trade, while FTSE 100 futures jumped 0.8%.
Comment:
This trade is stil open and active
relevant market wraps
European Markets Head for Muted Open
European equity markets were headed for a muted open on Thursday as investors braced for the start of the earnings season in the region. Major European firms slated to report earnings today include SAP, EasyJet, Volvo Car, Publicis, ABB and Nokia. Investors also turned cautious after shares of key technology names in the US dropped in post-market trade on disappointing quarterly results. DAX, Stoxx 600 and FTSE 100 futures all fluctuated around the flatline in premarket trade.
Gold Hits 2-Month High on Fed Pause Bets
Japan 10-Year Yield Steadies Around 0.46%
Japan’s 10-year government bond yield steadied around 0.46% as a dovish outlook on Bank of Japan monetary policy kept the benchmark yield below the upper limit of the target range. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda recently stated that there was still some distance to sustainably and stably achieve the central bank’s 2% inflation target, indicating the BOJ’s commitment to ultra-easy monetary policy. Last month, the central bank held its short-term interest rate target at -0.1% and that of 10-year bond yields at around 0% by a unanimous vote, in line with expectations. Falling bond yields in other major economies also reduced upward pressure on JGB yields, as easing inflationary pressures raised hopes that the end of the current monetary policy tightening cycle is close.
Japan Raises This Year’s Price View to 2.6% Ahead of BOJ Meet
The Japanese government raised its overall inflation forecast to 2.6% for the current fiscal year ahead of the central bank’s policy decision meeting next week, the Cabinet Office said Thursday. The upward revision from the previous forecast of 1.7% shows stronger-than-expected inflationary pressure. Japan saw that trend holding up even after accounting for government price-relief measures, which the Cabinet Office says shaves 0.5 percentage points off this year’s price reading. For fiscal 2024, the government expects overall inflation to slow to 1.9%.
relevant market wraps
European Markets Head for Muted Open
European equity markets were headed for a muted open on Thursday as investors braced for the start of the earnings season in the region. Major European firms slated to report earnings today include SAP, EasyJet, Volvo Car, Publicis, ABB and Nokia. Investors also turned cautious after shares of key technology names in the US dropped in post-market trade on disappointing quarterly results. DAX, Stoxx 600 and FTSE 100 futures all fluctuated around the flatline in premarket trade.
Gold Hits 2-Month High on Fed Pause Bets
Japan 10-Year Yield Steadies Around 0.46%
Japan’s 10-year government bond yield steadied around 0.46% as a dovish outlook on Bank of Japan monetary policy kept the benchmark yield below the upper limit of the target range. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda recently stated that there was still some distance to sustainably and stably achieve the central bank’s 2% inflation target, indicating the BOJ’s commitment to ultra-easy monetary policy. Last month, the central bank held its short-term interest rate target at -0.1% and that of 10-year bond yields at around 0% by a unanimous vote, in line with expectations. Falling bond yields in other major economies also reduced upward pressure on JGB yields, as easing inflationary pressures raised hopes that the end of the current monetary policy tightening cycle is close.
Japan Raises This Year’s Price View to 2.6% Ahead of BOJ Meet
The Japanese government raised its overall inflation forecast to 2.6% for the current fiscal year ahead of the central bank’s policy decision meeting next week, the Cabinet Office said Thursday. The upward revision from the previous forecast of 1.7% shows stronger-than-expected inflationary pressure. Japan saw that trend holding up even after accounting for government price-relief measures, which the Cabinet Office says shaves 0.5 percentage points off this year’s price reading. For fiscal 2024, the government expects overall inflation to slow to 1.9%.
Comment:
TRADE OPEN and active : YEN DOWN! YEN DOWN YEN DOWN!
Comment:
Japan Inflation Rate Below Estimates in JuneJapan Inflation Rate
The annual inflation rate in Japan edged up to 3.3% in June 2023 from 3.2% in May but less than market forecasts of 3.5%. Core inflation also ticked higher to 3.3% in June from 3.2% in May, matching consensus but staying outside the Bank of Japan's 2% target for the 15th month. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.2% after being flat in May.
Dow Extends Winning Streak, Tech Drag
The Dow Jones closed 163 points higher on Thursday, marking its ninth-straight session of gains and its longest winning streak since September 2017. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq lost 0.7% and 2%, respectively dragged by tech shares as latest corporate earnings were in focus. Johnson & Johnson was the top performer and soared around 6% on upbeat revenue and earnings, helping propel the Dow. Travelers added 1.8% higher after beating on revenue but falling short of expectations on earnings. IBM shares were nearly 2.1% higher despite its disappointing revenue. Conversely, Netflix lost 8.4% after the company's revenue missed forecasts. Also, Tesla tumbled 9.7%, its biggest daily percentage drop since April 20 after reporting a drop in its second-quarter gross margins to a four-year low and Elon Musk hinted at more price cuts. Blackstone moved 0.7% lower after a 39% drop in earnings and American Airlines sank 6.2% despite raising its earnings outlook for 2023.
The annual inflation rate in Japan edged up to 3.3% in June 2023 from 3.2% in May but less than market forecasts of 3.5%. Core inflation also ticked higher to 3.3% in June from 3.2% in May, matching consensus but staying outside the Bank of Japan's 2% target for the 15th month. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.2% after being flat in May.
Dow Extends Winning Streak, Tech Drag
The Dow Jones closed 163 points higher on Thursday, marking its ninth-straight session of gains and its longest winning streak since September 2017. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq lost 0.7% and 2%, respectively dragged by tech shares as latest corporate earnings were in focus. Johnson & Johnson was the top performer and soared around 6% on upbeat revenue and earnings, helping propel the Dow. Travelers added 1.8% higher after beating on revenue but falling short of expectations on earnings. IBM shares were nearly 2.1% higher despite its disappointing revenue. Conversely, Netflix lost 8.4% after the company's revenue missed forecasts. Also, Tesla tumbled 9.7%, its biggest daily percentage drop since April 20 after reporting a drop in its second-quarter gross margins to a four-year low and Elon Musk hinted at more price cuts. Blackstone moved 0.7% lower after a 39% drop in earnings and American Airlines sank 6.2% despite raising its earnings outlook for 2023.
Comment:
trade is open
Comment:
trade is open
Comment:
trade is open
Comment:
trade is open.
Trade setup as on the chart above explained and mentioned is open(See the Time Frame): The Trade setup above is only based on daily,weekly,monthly and 4 Hours timeframe. For daytraders who are involved on lower time frame you need to calculate or possibly use your other strategies. The trade setup above is only created for trend followers, also daytraders can benefit of it, if they choose to.
Trade setup as on the chart above explained and mentioned is open(See the Time Frame): The Trade setup above is only based on daily,weekly,monthly and 4 Hours timeframe. For daytraders who are involved on lower time frame you need to calculate or possibly use your other strategies. The trade setup above is only created for trend followers, also daytraders can benefit of it, if they choose to.
Comment:
bullidh
Comment:
masdaq bullish after FOMC , I bouht more nowmy target stays at 21000
Next FED meeting in nov. december is much more important..
Next FED meeting in nov. december is much more important..
Comment:
masdaq bullish after FOMC , I bouht more nowmy target stays at 21000
Next FED meeting in nov. december is much more important..
long dow jones long rty long indices and stocks
Next FED meeting in nov. december is much more important..
long dow jones long rty long indices and stocks
Comment:
Trade open
Long
VIX DOWN DXY DOWN
The US economy grew 2.4% GDP in Q2
US Futures Extend Gains after Upbeat GDP Growth
US stock futures extended gains on Thursday, with contracts on the Dow Jones jumping about 170 points, S&P 500 gaining 0.9% and the Nasdaq 100 up 1.6% as investors cheered fresh data and corporate earnings results. The US economy grew 2.4% GDP in Q2, surpassing market expectations of 1.8% expansion in a sign the US economy remains resilient despite high-interest rates. Meanwhile, Meta Platforms surged about 10% in premarket trading after reporting strong earnings and profit and a better-than-expected forecast for the current period. Comcast jumped over 2.5% after earnings and revenue came higher than anticipated and McDonald's was up about 1.3% after sales topped forecasts. Mastercard was also in the green (0.6%) after delivering strong revenue and earnings growth. Intel, Ford and T-Mobile are due to report today after the closing bell.
US Initial Jobless Claims Fall to 5-Month Low
US GDP Grows at a Stronger 2.4%
Long
VIX DOWN DXY DOWN
The US economy grew 2.4% GDP in Q2
US Futures Extend Gains after Upbeat GDP Growth
US stock futures extended gains on Thursday, with contracts on the Dow Jones jumping about 170 points, S&P 500 gaining 0.9% and the Nasdaq 100 up 1.6% as investors cheered fresh data and corporate earnings results. The US economy grew 2.4% GDP in Q2, surpassing market expectations of 1.8% expansion in a sign the US economy remains resilient despite high-interest rates. Meanwhile, Meta Platforms surged about 10% in premarket trading after reporting strong earnings and profit and a better-than-expected forecast for the current period. Comcast jumped over 2.5% after earnings and revenue came higher than anticipated and McDonald's was up about 1.3% after sales topped forecasts. Mastercard was also in the green (0.6%) after delivering strong revenue and earnings growth. Intel, Ford and T-Mobile are due to report today after the closing bell.
US Initial Jobless Claims Fall to 5-Month Low
US GDP Grows at a Stronger 2.4%
Comment:
US Stocks on Track to End July More than 3% Higher
Comment:
Trend Bullish
long
Japan's 'Mr Yen' Sakakibara expects no yen intervention
Australian Dollar Set For Big Move
long
Japan's 'Mr Yen' Sakakibara expects no yen intervention
Australian Dollar Set For Big Move
Comment:
New Buy Signal
US Credit Card Markets Head Back to Normal after Pandemic Pause
US Credit Card Markets Head Back to Normal after Pandemic Pause
Comment:
Nasdaq SP500 Dow Reversal
Trend up US 10-Year Treasury Auction Sees Decent Demand Despite Yield Under 4%
DCY down
Oil UP
Nasdaq Bullish
Dow Bullish
RTY Bullish
SP500 Bullish
Wait for CPI today. Possible Correction(I hope so that the makrket goes down first to 15000-14500) That is exactly the Gap Fill ,before Nasdaq Flies to 15850 and 16250 2nd Gap FILL)...So ge ready ,wait and watch closely the supports and resistances,better with Divergenes. In the chats and social media a lot of amateur traders are nervouse, becuz no trading experiences.So stop listening to them...Chats will cost you money. Instead relax,wait,have patience till we get the buy zones. Read comments above. I mentioned already Picadelli Points.
Trend up US 10-Year Treasury Auction Sees Decent Demand Despite Yield Under 4%
DCY down
Oil UP
Nasdaq Bullish
Dow Bullish
RTY Bullish
SP500 Bullish
Wait for CPI today. Possible Correction(I hope so that the makrket goes down first to 15000-14500) That is exactly the Gap Fill ,before Nasdaq Flies to 15850 and 16250 2nd Gap FILL)...So ge ready ,wait and watch closely the supports and resistances,better with Divergenes. In the chats and social media a lot of amateur traders are nervouse, becuz no trading experiences.So stop listening to them...Chats will cost you money. Instead relax,wait,have patience till we get the buy zones. Read comments above. I mentioned already Picadelli Points.
Comment:
Japanese Yen Breaks Above 145
LONG
the Bank of Japan is unlikely to increase its ultra-loose policy rate until Governor Kuroda's term expires in the first quarter of 2023.
A break below 124is the start of bearish trend.
Technical: BULLISH
STRATEGY
BUY THE CORRECTION
Higher Highs
Higher Lows
Fundamentals:
See my previouse USDJPY trade ideas.All Tades are active, and a lot of fundamental explanations of USDJPY. Read them.Undestand them,then you can mae good trades.
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