The US dollar initially rally during the trading session on Monday again, as it was suggested that the phone call between the Americans and the Chinese was “constructive” over the weekend. However, since then “unnamed Chinese government sources” have suggested “pessimism” over the phone call. In other words, more choppiness is to be found and risk appetite currency pair such as the USD/JPY.
From a technical analysis standpoint, the market did break above the 200 day EMA but has given that backup by the middle of the day on Monday. That being said, there is significant support underneath at the 50 day EMA as well, and of course the ¥108 level as it is a psychologically important and structurally important figure. At this point, it’s very likely that short-term scalping is going to continue to be the best way to play this market, because although there is a lot of hope out there, the reality is that there is no certainty. We have a lot of “push pull” type of attitude when it comes to risk appetite out there, and of course this market will be needed different than some of the other ones like gold, bitcoin, and other risk barometer like markets.
At this point, the market needs to see a daily close above the ¥110 level to continue the uptrend and go much higher. At that point the market would probably go looking towards the ¥112 level, which is the 100% Fibonacci retracement level. Alternately, if the market was to break down below the ¥107.50 level, then the market could unwind quite a bit from there as well. Again though, the easiest way to play this market is probably going to be scalping back and forth between the two major moving averages on offer short-term charts. Unfortunately, clarity on the US/China trade front seems to be lacking.
From a technical analysis standpoint, the market did break above the 200 day EMA but has given that backup by the middle of the day on Monday. That being said, there is significant support underneath at the 50 day EMA as well, and of course the ¥108 level as it is a psychologically important and structurally important figure. At this point, it’s very likely that short-term scalping is going to continue to be the best way to play this market, because although there is a lot of hope out there, the reality is that there is no certainty. We have a lot of “push pull” type of attitude when it comes to risk appetite out there, and of course this market will be needed different than some of the other ones like gold, bitcoin, and other risk barometer like markets.
At this point, the market needs to see a daily close above the ¥110 level to continue the uptrend and go much higher. At that point the market would probably go looking towards the ¥112 level, which is the 100% Fibonacci retracement level. Alternately, if the market was to break down below the ¥107.50 level, then the market could unwind quite a bit from there as well. Again though, the easiest way to play this market is probably going to be scalping back and forth between the two major moving averages on offer short-term charts. Unfortunately, clarity on the US/China trade front seems to be lacking.