NickLindleyFx

USD/JPY current open long position. (Back with a bang!?)

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen
I have decided to return and begin posting my market outlooks on TradingView, to establish both my name and brand. Please ensure you follow my page for upcoming market breakdowns of the 9 currency pairs I trade.

To start off, here is USD/JPY . Following my usual analysis pattern I first established my bias across the higher time frames. On the monthly time frame, although the candle has yet to close, we can see a strong wick rejection of both 105.200 - 107.500. Thinking logically, we saw these vast wicks form on the 1st of January, possibly to bring price down to a level where the "big cats" has inserted there buy orders? a form of market manipulation perhaps? you decide.

Moving onto the weekly time frame, price has been rapidly descending since its rejecting of strong support at 114.000. A trade I managed to profit from on a few occasions. However, with this in mind price seems to be running out of steam from its current bear run with last weeks candle closing as a doji following a heavy candle fuelled with plenty of bearish momentum.

Shifting down onto the daily time frame we can see this descent from 114.000 more clearly. It is apparent that price had little to no pullback throughout its collapse and recently has put in signs that it is over-extended to the downside and its in need of a greater pullback to the upside if it is to continue its descent. 10th of January's daily candle seemed to have formed a higher low after rejecting what could of been a strong bearish candle. Is this the initial signs of a break of the bearish trend? We have also established a daily trading range between 107.500 and 109.000 which was used as resistance previously.

On the hourly time frame, we have two areas of interest. First a level at 108.200 which has been reacting as both support and resistance on multiple occasions during prices daily range. The second area of interest sits at 108.043. Although price sits below 108.200, it has just placed 5 consecutive wick rejection off 108.043 and rejected the potential to make new lows... To me this suggests signs of a shift in the overall trend following our higher time frame confluences. I have therefore entered long, targeting the daily range resistance at 109.000. However, we have yet to see a clear break above the hourly 50ema and 108.200 so this trade has been entered using half the risk I would usually use with the vision to scale in after a clear break above both levels.

Please do not use my analysis as finical gospel but instead alongside your own ideas!

Feb 28
Trade closed: target reached
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