Movali123

USD/JPY- Patience required!

OANDA:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen
UJ has bounced nicely following last weeks melt down. The trend lines on this thing have really pissed me off! There's been a few sneaks up and below the Jan 2019- present trendlines . Some may see it as a pennant which could break on either side.

The current picture to me is a lot of people anticipating a short level at 111.00 but Im thinking slightly different. The current drawdown Fib retracement suggests theres at least a another push firstly to the 111.06 area and even possible manipulation zone which could pull us above the blue solid line and touching the 786 Fib level at 111.43. RSI still has room on the 1h and 4h so for me a no trade zone at the moment. With resistance levels at 111.00 its too risky to catch a few pips up but I will be eyeing candle closures around the given Fib zones to try catch a solid move down. Again on the downside id wait for the pennant (lower blue solid line) to break as to whether to hold shorts for longer.

To me it makes more sense judging the spikes in and out these trendlines and with so many waiting to short a spike above the trendline and then back down seems more realistic. A touch to these regions would still maintain the LH theory and we could aniticipate a draw down. If the 111.43 level was to break and there is a strong daily closure above then we could assume the pennants broken on the upside.

As always this is not intended to pursuade anyone! more just for information and sharing my thought processes.
Trade safe and leave a like if you appreciate the post! Thanks!

Comment: Currently absorbing the price action- pretty accurate touch on the given Fib level which couldn't have been anymore precise. Watching the 4h and daily close later, entered a position short ( in a put my money where my mouth is moment) with a SL pretty tight at 111.55.

The yen is very weak which might invalidate this Fib and pennant which is why a tight SL is needed. RSI is reaching high levels on 1h and 4h so at least some form of drawdown may seem likely but expect the unexpected in trading!

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