This is a zoomed in screenshot of USDJPY at H1, but my analysis always starts from the monthly.
On the monthly timeframe, we have seen bearish momentum the past 3 months, but this March we saw everything crawl as the market printed a bullish doji.
As we zoomed in to weekly, we saw a descending channel that confirms that past momentum of the last 3 months, but this channel has spanned over the entire month and has not moved as much as the previous months indicating a decrease in bearish momentum. Are we seeing bullish action this April? Or will price continue to plunge to Q3 2016 lows?
Going into the daily the picture becomes even clearer - there is a battle between the bears and the bulls as bulls are trying to gain control of the UJ market. Their strength shows with the last 3 days candles prior to the week's close where we have a parabolic uptrend. It only came to a halt after reaching the upper trendline of the channel and hitting 106.830~. Seems there's a lot of supply there.
Coming down to the H4 chart we see a pullback to the 50% Fib ratio, a H4 support, and has now been printing bullish candles after a doji.
However as you can see now on H1, the bullish momentum is incredibly slow where we see 14 hours worth of bars only move the price 15 pips up, and on top of that we have a candle with an incredibly long wick before this price action. Bulls are trying to push this up after the pullback but bears are still in control. To add, this has also formed a bearish continuation wedge. A lot of signs that we are still going to go down based on the lower timeframe, but we must remember that momentum for the bears have slowed down from the monthly chart.
So, trading plan for the week? The arrows explain that. If this bearish wedge breaks to the downside I will wait for a pullback to the CS, wait for a pattern confirmation, and BOS on possibly the >H1 TFs, then sell it.
If it continues to go up, I will wait for a pullback, again, to any of the CS levels and it has to show strong bullish momentum.
It could possibly go nowhere and just consolidate between the daily and H4 levels and if that happens - no trade. I'll be looking at a few other markets. Mainly GU and gold. Perhaps crude oil too, just to make sure I'm not overexposed to one sector.
This will be the first of many of my in-depth trading journals.
On the monthly timeframe, we have seen bearish momentum the past 3 months, but this March we saw everything crawl as the market printed a bullish doji.
As we zoomed in to weekly, we saw a descending channel that confirms that past momentum of the last 3 months, but this channel has spanned over the entire month and has not moved as much as the previous months indicating a decrease in bearish momentum. Are we seeing bullish action this April? Or will price continue to plunge to Q3 2016 lows?
Going into the daily the picture becomes even clearer - there is a battle between the bears and the bulls as bulls are trying to gain control of the UJ market. Their strength shows with the last 3 days candles prior to the week's close where we have a parabolic uptrend. It only came to a halt after reaching the upper trendline of the channel and hitting 106.830~. Seems there's a lot of supply there.
Coming down to the H4 chart we see a pullback to the 50% Fib ratio, a H4 support, and has now been printing bullish candles after a doji.
However as you can see now on H1, the bullish momentum is incredibly slow where we see 14 hours worth of bars only move the price 15 pips up, and on top of that we have a candle with an incredibly long wick before this price action. Bulls are trying to push this up after the pullback but bears are still in control. To add, this has also formed a bearish continuation wedge. A lot of signs that we are still going to go down based on the lower timeframe, but we must remember that momentum for the bears have slowed down from the monthly chart.
So, trading plan for the week? The arrows explain that. If this bearish wedge breaks to the downside I will wait for a pullback to the CS, wait for a pattern confirmation, and BOS on possibly the >H1 TFs, then sell it.
If it continues to go up, I will wait for a pullback, again, to any of the CS levels and it has to show strong bullish momentum.
It could possibly go nowhere and just consolidate between the daily and H4 levels and if that happens - no trade. I'll be looking at a few other markets. Mainly GU and gold. Perhaps crude oil too, just to make sure I'm not overexposed to one sector.
This will be the first of many of my in-depth trading journals.
Comment:
It has just reached the 38.2 and H4 level and now seems to be consolidating. This is typically what we'd expect during Mondays.