This is the analysis for 4 Hour Chart of
USDJPY
Trade Triggers: ****Important
1. The price of USDJPY is already at a point where one can go long right now. ----> Aggressive approach
2. But there is a saying that goes like "Prevention is better than cure." So, I, being a conservative trader, would suggest that we should wait for the market to retest the low that will be made eventually. I would like to see the price failing to make a new low after that which would further prove my theory that the market is not willing to go down and that would trigger my long trade. PLUS, I will like to see the market making some big bull-bars and rejection of the lower prices with big shadows which would further suggest that the bulls might be trying to take control of the market again (on a short-term basis). I will also like to see the price going over the MAs and then taking support from those MAs to go long.
I don't know which one of the above-mentioned approaches is correct. Sometimes the aggressive one is correct, sometimes the conservative approach is the one we should go with, and sometimes both the approaches are proven correct by the market. Both approaches have their pros and cons.
*RED FLAGS*
The only warning is breaking of the significant-low, i.e., 106.960 JPY, made on 24th September. This will then break my formations (market-context) and I won't take a long-trade then. I will then wait for some more price-action to decide what are the steps that I should take.
The best way to "TRADE MANAGEMENT" would be taking trades with 2 lots with appropriate stops below the significant low @ 106.960 JPY and targets at-
1. 18th September high at 108.450 or 108.5 represented by the broken red line.
2. The 2nd lot to be squared off at the next Resistance levels at 109.000 or it will be left with trailing stops at appropriate levels.
This trade can have a reward – risk ratio of 3 or more if the cards are played right.
For traders who want to know more about my techniques or have any queries, you can chat with me directly through private chats. I will reply you back as fast as I can. Kindly like this post. Also, please do comment in the comment sections below. And I will love it if you follow me.
Thank You!
Disclaimer -
All the ideas posted on these posts are published in good faith and for general educational purposes only. Satx98 does not make any warranties about the completeness, reliability, and accuracy of this information. Any action you take upon the ideas posted by me is strictly at your own risk. I will not be liable for any losses and/or damages in connection with the use of my ideas.
USDJPY
- *TREND ANALYSIS* -
1) The price of the above-mentioned pair made a significant low on 24th September o'19 which has not been broken yet. So, it can be assumed that the BEARS are still not in control of the market yet.
2) The price is below the MAs, but the short-term MA, represented by the blue curve on the chart, is still above the long-term MA, represented by the orange curve.
3) The BEARs made some huge black candles while the price was coming down from the resistance, represented by the red-broken lines on the chart.
4) Point no. 2 and 3 could mean that the BULLS might not still be in full control of the market yet. This could mean that the price could be in a range-bound market which means our best bet would be "Buy the lows/supports or Sell the highs/resistances".
5)As we can see in the above figure, the channel trend-lines have been drawn on the chart with blue-dotted lines. This could mean that the price is still showing some bullish signs and the BULLS are in control on a longer-term basis.
6)This chart of USDJPY, on the other hand, shows a resistance trend-line with a blue-dotted line. The most recent resistance that the price took from this trend-line was on 1st October o'19 and the price dropped very fast with huge BEAR candles. The price is now near support again, near the low (106.960 JPY) of 24th September but hasn't broken that low yet. This means that even though the price fell from the resistance trend-line, the BEARS are still failing to break the significant low made on 24th September. This suggests that BULLS, on a short-term basis, can take control of the market at any moment now.
*TREND ANALYSIS* Conclusion - The market is in a SIDEWAYS-cum-UP trend. SIDEWAYS on a shorter-term basis and a probable UP trend on a longer-term basis. If the price breaks the resistance shown on the chart with the red-broken line, we can then say for sure that this pair (
USDJPY
) is in an UP-TREND.
- *SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE ANALYSIS* -
In this chart, we can clearly see that the price is now at a confluence of both the channel trend-line support and the horizontal support. The MA-Supports are also near the price. So, we can assume that the price is cheap now.
- *CHART PATTERN AND CANDLE ANALYSIS* -
1) The price could be trying to make a Double-Bottom right now. Plus the price fell to the Support Zone with a Steep slope which could mean that the price is now OVERSOLD. This increases the chances of the market rising from here.
2) The bear-bars are big and there are still no signs of strong bull-bars. Plus there are still no indecision-candles. Candlesticks are the way to gauge the short-term momentum of the price. Indecision-candles tell us that a short-term trend might be losing its steam. So, we can say from this, that the price is still not showing any signs of stopping its down move (on a short-term basis).
*CHART PATTERN AND CANDLE ANALYSIS* Conclusion - The price of
USDJPY
might be at a support-zone but there are still no candle-signals that could potentially trigger a trade.
Trade Triggers: ****Important
1. The price of USDJPY is already at a point where one can go long right now. ----> Aggressive approach
2. But there is a saying that goes like "Prevention is better than cure." So, I, being a conservative trader, would suggest that we should wait for the market to retest the low that will be made eventually. I would like to see the price failing to make a new low after that which would further prove my theory that the market is not willing to go down and that would trigger my long trade. PLUS, I will like to see the market making some big bull-bars and rejection of the lower prices with big shadows which would further suggest that the bulls might be trying to take control of the market again (on a short-term basis). I will also like to see the price going over the MAs and then taking support from those MAs to go long.
I don't know which one of the above-mentioned approaches is correct. Sometimes the aggressive one is correct, sometimes the conservative approach is the one we should go with, and sometimes both the approaches are proven correct by the market. Both approaches have their pros and cons.
*RED FLAGS*
The only warning is breaking of the significant-low, i.e., 106.960 JPY, made on 24th September. This will then break my formations (market-context) and I won't take a long-trade then. I will then wait for some more price-action to decide what are the steps that I should take.
The best way to "TRADE MANAGEMENT" would be taking trades with 2 lots with appropriate stops below the significant low @ 106.960 JPY and targets at-
1. 18th September high at 108.450 or 108.5 represented by the broken red line.
2. The 2nd lot to be squared off at the next Resistance levels at 109.000 or it will be left with trailing stops at appropriate levels.
This trade can have a reward – risk ratio of 3 or more if the cards are played right.
For traders who want to know more about my techniques or have any queries, you can chat with me directly through private chats. I will reply you back as fast as I can. Kindly like this post. Also, please do comment in the comment sections below. And I will love it if you follow me.
Thank You!
Disclaimer -
All the ideas posted on these posts are published in good faith and for general educational purposes only. Satx98 does not make any warranties about the completeness, reliability, and accuracy of this information. Any action you take upon the ideas posted by me is strictly at your own risk. I will not be liable for any losses and/or damages in connection with the use of my ideas.
