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The US Consumer Price Index for January was announced yesterday. The January CPI year-over-year (YOY) exceeded expectations at 3.1%, surpassing the forecasted 2.9%, while the Core CPI YOY stood at 3.9%, beating the expected 3.7%. Inflationary pressures seem to be persisting more than anticipated, indicating a dwindling possibility of early rate cuts.
- With the US labor market showing signs of overheating and inflationary pressures persisting more than expected, the timing of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is being pushed back, with expectations that it may be even later compared to other central banks.
- Japan's fourth-quarter GDP will be announced on February 15th.
- US Producer Price Index will be released on February 16th.
- CME Fedwatch reflects a 8.5% probability of a rate cut in March and a 33.9% probability in May.
- USDJPY surged significantly due to CPI effects. Given its previous support at the lower trend line, it may continue its upward movement towards the upper trend line. However, resistance lies ahead at the upper trend line, so we need to see if there will be a short-term decline followed by a rebound, or a direct breakthrough of the previous high and continued ascent.
In summarizing the most likely scenarios:
- Support at the 152.000 level after a short-term decline, leading to medium to long-term upward trend.
- Breakthrough of the 152.000 level, aiming for a medium-term rise towards the 158 level.
These two scenarios are currently the most probable, and adjustments will be made if there are any variables.
The US Consumer Price Index for January was announced yesterday. The January CPI year-over-year (YOY) exceeded expectations at 3.1%, surpassing the forecasted 2.9%, while the Core CPI YOY stood at 3.9%, beating the expected 3.7%. Inflationary pressures seem to be persisting more than anticipated, indicating a dwindling possibility of early rate cuts.
- With the US labor market showing signs of overheating and inflationary pressures persisting more than expected, the timing of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is being pushed back, with expectations that it may be even later compared to other central banks.
- Japan's fourth-quarter GDP will be announced on February 15th.
- US Producer Price Index will be released on February 16th.
- CME Fedwatch reflects a 8.5% probability of a rate cut in March and a 33.9% probability in May.
- USDJPY surged significantly due to CPI effects. Given its previous support at the lower trend line, it may continue its upward movement towards the upper trend line. However, resistance lies ahead at the upper trend line, so we need to see if there will be a short-term decline followed by a rebound, or a direct breakthrough of the previous high and continued ascent.
In summarizing the most likely scenarios:
- Support at the 152.000 level after a short-term decline, leading to medium to long-term upward trend.
- Breakthrough of the 152.000 level, aiming for a medium-term rise towards the 158 level.
These two scenarios are currently the most probable, and adjustments will be made if there are any variables.