Last time USD JPY touched 150 before 2022 was 1998 and in 2024 we are back at it! This is very much backed up by BOJ keeping Interest rate at sub zero level ( negative ) and forcing inflation in JAPAN due to heavy deflation caused by wrong BOJ policy before. BOJ was talking about if wages grow and inflation comes from demand not hiking price energy, they will come back to a normal policy were negative rate will come back to positive but at the same time they do not want to give a way the healthy inflation they created by doing so and they do not want to scare JAPAN by higher mortgage rates. Hard task for them indeed and they have a small time window to do so ! if they start before FEDS start cutting and this will hit JPY INDEX LONG HARD and this is against their will. if they start when FEDS start to cut and this sounds like a safe plan but predicting when FEDS will do so is a hard job. Future of USD JPY depends heavy on the timing of this normalization by BOJ . for now market sentiment shows USD JPY ready to break 150 for the first time in 35 years! this will signal a big hike but FEDS can come and ruin the plan with CUTS! all and all market has decided for a hike fore now and its expecting BOJ to announce normalization in MARCH or APRIL but since wage info is not clear in MARCH so highly expected BOJ to make the Final move in APRIL. this might hit USD JPY as well. will USD JPY see 200 in upcoming years ? or will 172.5 be the end of this LONG? we might monitor closely . this week THE CPI reading ON DXY will decide the break of 150.
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Comment:
looking healthy