Chinese Yuan Potential to Weaken Further vs. U.S. Dollar
From 1981 (1.52/USD), the Renminbi depreciated drastically until the end of 1993 to over 8.74/USD. Since then, what appears to have been a complete 5-wave decline in the value of the Dollar vs. the Yuan reached a point where it was nearly a 0.382 retracement of the 1981-1993 wave (to around 6.00/USD) and then began what I see as an upward corrective sequence.
I am taking this upward corrective wave to be an ABC zigzag. I believe it is wave "B" up of the downward correction that began in 1994. This wave "B" is itself also a zigzag. Both the "b" wave within it and the 4th wave of the subsequent "c" wave that is now unfolding appear to be contracting triangles with similar thrust targets, together suggesting a target for "B" in the range of 6.67-6.90. More exactly, I suspect 6.8748, as that is the exact midpoint between the .236 and .382 retracement of the downward correction from 1994-2015 (wave "A"), coincides very closely with the midpoint of the two triangle thrust measurements, and corresponds to the upper extreme of the 4th wave of the preceding downward wave "A".
Fundamentally speaking, I suspect that as the Chinese government anticipates that the Renminbi will soon be included in the IMF's international reserve currency basket, the Special Drawing Right,, they are preemptively devaluing the RMB to offset the rise in its value vs. the Dollar that would presumably occur as a result of acceptance into the SDR when more nations buy into the RMB. They seek the recognition and use of the RMB as a global reserve currency to rival the U.S. Dollar while at the same time wish to avoid excessive appreciation which would hurt export competitiveness.
I am taking this upward corrective wave to be an ABC zigzag. I believe it is wave "B" up of the downward correction that began in 1994. This wave "B" is itself also a zigzag. Both the "b" wave within it and the 4th wave of the subsequent "c" wave that is now unfolding appear to be contracting triangles with similar thrust targets, together suggesting a target for "B" in the range of 6.67-6.90. More exactly, I suspect 6.8748, as that is the exact midpoint between the .236 and .382 retracement of the downward correction from 1994-2015 (wave "A"), coincides very closely with the midpoint of the two triangle thrust measurements, and corresponds to the upper extreme of the 4th wave of the preceding downward wave "A".
Fundamentally speaking, I suspect that as the Chinese government anticipates that the Renminbi will soon be included in the IMF's international reserve currency basket, the Special Drawing Right,, they are preemptively devaluing the RMB to offset the rise in its value vs. the Dollar that would presumably occur as a result of acceptance into the SDR when more nations buy into the RMB. They seek the recognition and use of the RMB as a global reserve currency to rival the U.S. Dollar while at the same time wish to avoid excessive appreciation which would hurt export competitiveness.