AynCzubas

AynCzubas

From 1981 (1.52/USD), the Renminbi depreciated drastically until the end of 1993 to over 8.74/USD. Since then, what appears to have been a complete 5-wave decline in the value of the Dollar vs. the Yuan reached a point where it was nearly a 0.382 retracement of the 1981-1993 wave (to around 6.00/USD) and then began what I see as an upward corrective sequence. I...

AynCzubas

The Bitcoin price is going parabolic again. Beware of jumping on this train too quickly. Why? It looks like a triangle is forming within the decline from the the all-time high in 2013. The triangle would need to be a 4th wave, assuming the all-time high at $1163 was a 3rd wave, and it would indeed portend a thrust higher at its end. However, a 4th wave may not...

AynCzubas

My previous forecast had proposed that the 2137.1 May 19th all-time high was the end of wave "(a)" and the 2107.4 August 18th high was the end of wave "(e)" to complete a bearish triangular wave "b" which originated from the low of year 2009. However, since the index has now exceeded 2107.4 and therefore moved back above the presumed starting point of the...

AynCzubas

Despite increasing concerns with overall deflation, which should generally take prices down, I can't ignore the pattern I see here. Taking the 2009-2014 price action as a triangle, the measured post-triangle thrust was met and just barely exceeded by the crash until January 2015. I believe that was a 3rd wave low. The following rally into June '15, as a 4th...

AynCzubas

From $13.962, the rally in silver appears to be completing a triangular 4th (of a 3rd) wave which looks to be targeting the $16.83-16.95 level at minimum. I expect that will end the 3rd wave, price should then consolidate back to nearly the present level, then be followed by a final jump to above $17.50 to end this leg of the upward sequence. I suspect this...

AynCzubas

Thought that would get your attention. Well, I've been thinking hard about my Elliott Wave count for the S&P 500, because it is very difficult to find a clean-looking impulsive wave structure coming down from 2137.1. I originally ascertained a less than ideal count of 3 waves down to 1833.5, but once this upward correction took out the 2070 level this week...

AynCzubas

It occurs to me that this 4th wave could be drawing out into a triangle which could extend until the end of the year. There are certain other factors which lead me to expect a final low of $0.94-95 for the Euro by the time this downward thrust from the 2008/9-originating "parent" triangle completes. Just making a rough estimate of what this 4th wave triangle might...

AynCzubas

My long-term view is that the decline since May 2014 has been a 5-wave impulse pattern which is the thrust from a bearish triangle that began in 2008/9. In March 2015, the 3rd wave of this thrust completed at 1.0459. The following rally to 1.1714 was the 4th wave. That 4th wave retraced nearly exactly 0.382 of the 3rd wave, by my count. The 5th and final wave...

AynCzubas

30-year Treasury Bond yields appear to be completing a contracting triangular 4th wave, the parameters of which imply an impending 5th wave thrust up to 3.88% or higher. This would amount to a retest of the highs seen from late 2013 to early 2014. A rise in yields would necessarily correspond to a drop in long-dated Bond prices.

AynCzubas

Following the all-time high of 2137.1 and subsequent drop to 1833.5, an upward correction that initially appeared to be forming as a contracting triangle has since broken out of its converging pattern and now has the appearance of a "Flat (3-3-5)"-type ABC correction. Within this correction, two primary rallies -- to 2021.4 and then to 2022 -- have hit resistance...

AynCzubas

From the perspective that wave b concluded at 2137.1 and the decline down to 1833.5 was wave 1 of c (c expected to be a destructive downward impulsive wave): The consolidation pattern up to 2021.4 represented an exact .618 retracement of the decline of wave 1 and may be considered wave 2. I suspect Wave 3 of c may ultimately be 1.382 to 1.618 the length of wave...

AynCzubas

The contracting triangle has narrowed down to its final wave "e", which is itself a triangle. The "e" wave may be complete after two more small waves, down, then up, ranging between roughly 1973 and 1945. From somewhere in the middle of that range, a downward thrust should then begin, taking the index below 1900 and likely at least as far as 1840-1800 in a 5th...

AynCzubas

It looks like the "e" wave of the 4th wave triangle is itself also a triangle, and its component "e" wave likewise a triangle, and so on, ad infinitum (to the extent there is no more wiggle room and the downward thrust will be forced to commence), which is not uncommon. If so, its own post-triangle thrust measurement based on its present parameters would imply...

AynCzubas

See linked previous postings below for background information Assuming wave "e" of triangular 4th wave peaked at 1968.4. Clear motive wave structure has developed so far down to 1940.6 . A 1st wave could be counted as complete here. From this level, there could be a rally to partially retrace back up (a 2nd wave), then a staggered resumption of an impulsive...

AynCzubas

This is an update, following from the previous posting entitled, " More on 4th Wave Triangle Potential ". I am viewing the recent action since the 1833.5 low as a developing bearish triangle (a 4th wave). I previously stated: " If this small rally reaches above 1976.2, but remains below 1995.4, it may mean that the triangle wave "c" is more complex (would...

AynCzubas

The way this small rally from 1910.4 appears to be tapering to a peak near the present level is giving me more bias toward viewing this correction from 1833.5 as a 4th wave triangle. Specifically, if this small rally is wave "e" of the triangle completing itself, it is very near to 1947.9 which is the .382 Fib retracement of the decline from 2132.9 to 1833.5...

AynCzubas

Putting another possibility out there: this consolidation since 1833 is narrowing within contracting lines so far and could be a triangle which is almost complete. This doesn't make the two other wave counts any less potentially valid, in my view, however. In fact, if this consolidation is a triangle and follows the path outlined in the chart and thrusts down to...

AynCzubas

Notwithstanding my longer-term concerns about the Chinese stock market, it does appear to me that the first leg of the crash from 5423.248 may be nearing completion. Looking at the structure of the correction thus far on the daily chart, the consolidation roughly in the middle of it can be counted as a contracting triangle, and the post-triangle thrust...