USD/CHF Analysis & Trade Update

We are currently in a LTF pullback within a higher time frame downtrend.
This trade idea initially formulated with the expectation of liquidity zones being mitigated and is now pulling what it needs from the upper bands to create what should be a large reversal to the downside.

This pullback point is hitting multiple major confluence points of resistance which I will highlight below:
1. Overall general downtrend continuation
2. 61.8% fib retrace level from former HTF swings
3. Top of major HTF trend line and resistance point

There is also a large demand zone and resistance turned support zone below which sellers can use as further momentum to move price lower if they capture the .886 level and hit the buyers stop losses.

So my trade here, since we made a BOS on both the LTF and HTF, once price mitigates and shows weakness from this FVG/Supply Zone I will enter with my stop loss above former high (liquidity pull at supply zone) and TP1 at Fib 50% for a 2.5 R:R.

The larger trade will be taken if we want to push up to the .9000 level which is a huge psychological level and also the bottom of a weekly supply zone. Here we have the potential of a 5+ R:R but will require further analysis and confluence once we get there. For now, we look for this short term drop to continue and create a minor downtrend

Trade active:

Still awaiting a CHoCH on our LTF charts in order to enter for our short. However, if we push higher and break out of this resistance level, we could be in line to hit the .9000 level / 71.8% for our larger short play

Comment:

Our Higher time frame target entry (70.70% fib retrace) is being hit. We will now wait for a lower time frame CHoCH and BOS to enter