theforexcast

USDCHF - Short Trading Idea on the Daily Chart

Short
FX:USDCHF   U.S. Dollar / Swiss Franc
Introduction:

This is an update on a trade idea we posted 12 days ago.

The market moved strongly against us in a continuation of the dollar rally. Even though we had set before a stop-loss on the 1.02 levels, we stretched this up until 1.02500 because price stalled heavily in that area. While not being a precise rejection with a full momentum-move downwards, this current price seems very attractive to CHF buyers who are finding it uninteresting to wait for it go up even higher.

How to proceed:

We have open shorts from our previous analysis and while we rode this narrow range in a bit of a scalping trade, we will try to get the best entry from here until 1.02200. Patience is key in slow-moving markets.

Take profit:

Our first take profit is an interaction with the first dotted trendline. The next level should be the interaction with the second trendline and the rest will be set with a 40 pips trailing stop-loss. Move stops to profit once at least 25-50 pips in profit.

Stop-loss (invalidation of analysis):

A stop-loss for all orders is set on 1.02500. By then we will reavaluate the market conditions and make decisions accordingly. Those targets, however, can be dynamically changed, i.e., according to live price action, should circumstances vary.

Side-notes:

Switzerland has an export-based economy that relies heavily on its monetary policy to maintain competitivity on international markets. The SNB (Swiss National Bank) actively interferes in its currency price, often undermining it to enhance the country's exports. A correction is due and this is the precise moment we stand on.

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