USDCHF - Wait for Retest - Trend Continuation
Hi Traders!
The market is moving in a longterm Downtrend.
Let's begin the Analysis with the weekly Timeframe!
Here is it:
As you can see the market was moving in a Range (orange Box).
The extremes Levels were the Resistance at 1.02000 and the Support at 0.96000.
It even tried twice to Break out bearish before, but it failed.
After that, the market started to respect the Trendline.
After reaching the Level 0.90000 it started to consolidate then.
The reasons for the Consolidation "Triangle" and not the Consolidation "Box" are justified by two factors:
The market is moving in a longterm Downtrend.
Let's begin the Analysis with the weekly Timeframe!
Here is it:
As you can see the market was moving in a Range (orange Box).
The extremes Levels were the Resistance at 1.02000 and the Support at 0.96000.
It even tried twice to Break out bearish before, but it failed.
After that, the market started to respect the Trendline.
After reaching the Level 0.90000 it started to consolidate then.
The reasons for the Consolidation "Triangle" and not the Consolidation "Box" are justified by two factors:
- The upper bearish pressure which pushes the market lower and
- The lower bullish pressure which pushes the market higher.
Both keep the market between extreme Levels.
In this case the bearish pressure is a descending Trendline and not a Level.
After this Consolidation the price broke out again in the Trend Direction.
Moving on to the Daily:
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Here you can identify a potential repititive pattern:
1. The market breaks out of an Key Area.
2. Then it falls for 181 pips.
3. It makes a Retest
4. It continues the Trend
If you take a closer look to the current Breakout, you can see that the market is getting
slower at 181 pips.
This of course means nothing for the future, but we can at least have an idea on how the market will might react to this.
So, because we want to trade in Trend Direction (remember: The Trend is your friend!) we wait for a Pullback.
The Entry Trigger is the Turning Point of the price after the Pullback.
This could be the touch of the broken Level at 0.900000.
It also could be the touch with the 50 MA.
The Target after the Touch is the Level, from which the price had broken out bullish from the Parallel Channel.
The Entry, SL and TP can only be defined when we have a concrete market situation.
We have to wait and see.
We recommend to trade the market with a bearish candlestick pattern confirmation!
Thanks and successful Trading :)!