Will It Plunge Lower or Rally Back To 0.88 ??
In the closing weeks of 2023, this pair experienced a significant sell off, plunging nearly 500 pips and breaking decisively below the September low. Reflecting on my July trade idea post, the market movement matched my expectations, though it did peak slightly higher than anticipated. So, what's next?
As I mentioned back in July, following the rise above 0.88, the next downward phase is expected to target the 2015 depeg low. Pinpointing the exact level is somewhat challenging, as different brokers quote slightly varying figures. However, it's likely in the range of 0.80 to 0.83, with 0.83 seeming more probable.
This is supported by lower timeframe analysis, where we've seen price repeatedly dip towards this level and then swiftly rebound - a classic sign of seller fatigue and buyers entering the fray. (refer to image below)
I anticipate that the pair's next move will be a rebound towards the newly established Weekly SELL zone, which lies between 0.87 and 0.88. Similar to the July movement, this rally might even extend towards 0.89.
Given that it's the first week of the year, I'm approaching this pair with extra caution. A swift drop below 0.83, or lower, is not off the table, especially considering the variance in brokers' 2015 depeg low levels.
My plan of attack for this pair is wait for a drop back down towards 0.83 and then start build into a position taking signals of my TRFX indicator from the 4hr to 12hr timeframes.
Target for this idea will be the Weekly Sell zone @ 0.87 to 0.88. Once there, I'll closely monitor price action to gauge market reaction at this pivotal level.
This zone presents a prime opportunity for sellers to re-enter and drive the market down towards the substantial Monthly and Weekly Buy zones ranging between 0.80 - 0.70. Over the next year or so, I expect the pair to descend to these levels.
But before that, a short-term rally to the aforementioned levels seems likely, followed by another significant drop, just as I outlined in my July post.
Hope you found this interesting, and Happy New Year!
As I mentioned back in July, following the rise above 0.88, the next downward phase is expected to target the 2015 depeg low. Pinpointing the exact level is somewhat challenging, as different brokers quote slightly varying figures. However, it's likely in the range of 0.80 to 0.83, with 0.83 seeming more probable.
This is supported by lower timeframe analysis, where we've seen price repeatedly dip towards this level and then swiftly rebound - a classic sign of seller fatigue and buyers entering the fray. (refer to image below)
I anticipate that the pair's next move will be a rebound towards the newly established Weekly SELL zone, which lies between 0.87 and 0.88. Similar to the July movement, this rally might even extend towards 0.89.
Given that it's the first week of the year, I'm approaching this pair with extra caution. A swift drop below 0.83, or lower, is not off the table, especially considering the variance in brokers' 2015 depeg low levels.
My plan of attack for this pair is wait for a drop back down towards 0.83 and then start build into a position taking signals of my TRFX indicator from the 4hr to 12hr timeframes.
Target for this idea will be the Weekly Sell zone @ 0.87 to 0.88. Once there, I'll closely monitor price action to gauge market reaction at this pivotal level.
This zone presents a prime opportunity for sellers to re-enter and drive the market down towards the substantial Monthly and Weekly Buy zones ranging between 0.80 - 0.70. Over the next year or so, I expect the pair to descend to these levels.
But before that, a short-term rally to the aforementioned levels seems likely, followed by another significant drop, just as I outlined in my July post.
Hope you found this interesting, and Happy New Year!
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We have nearly reached the target area of 0.87 -0.88 so will be interesting to see how price reacts inside this weekly SUPPLY/SELL zone.