ridethepig | CHF Market Commentary 2019.11.28
USDCHF still caught in the tight range, patience and flexibility important here, range bound 1.002x - 0.984x with both parameters significant now, it looks like being a roller-coaster into year-end. EURCHF very strong support 1.093x - more inclined to buy dips and play from the long side. I still favour upside EURCHF but as people still cutting longs we are unlikely to progress significantly higher in short term.
We are right back to our previous entry point and tracking exactly the same flows ... and by now I know all following here will know what to do at key resistance:
Remember, we can comfortably lean on the long-term chart:
and for those with a background in waves - we got stuck in severe chop within the same sequence:
With two sides to the theme we are trading the large macro flows from widespread USD devaluation as a main course dinner, while CHF outflows are likely via "orderly Brexit resolution" which will go on to act as desert. Remember CHF is the lowest yielder in G10 FX, it's been mainly used as a funding currency for carry trades, if risk ticks high in 2020 we are going to have a textbook zig-zag in play.
So the initial 'zig' (as seen above) coming from front-loaded USD devaluation into year-end/Jan, followed by decent CHF profit taking in February as those who used CHF to hedge Brexit begin to unwind. The major waterfall looks only to continue with momentum via US election risk and Brexit after the fact impacts (the kind you cannot heal from a political poll in the Times).
In any case, thanks all for keeping the likes and support rolling. As usual jump in the comments with your ideas and charts !!
We are right back to our previous entry point and tracking exactly the same flows ... and by now I know all following here will know what to do at key resistance:
Remember, we can comfortably lean on the long-term chart:
and for those with a background in waves - we got stuck in severe chop within the same sequence:
With two sides to the theme we are trading the large macro flows from widespread USD devaluation as a main course dinner, while CHF outflows are likely via "orderly Brexit resolution" which will go on to act as desert. Remember CHF is the lowest yielder in G10 FX, it's been mainly used as a funding currency for carry trades, if risk ticks high in 2020 we are going to have a textbook zig-zag in play.
So the initial 'zig' (as seen above) coming from front-loaded USD devaluation into year-end/Jan, followed by decent CHF profit taking in February as those who used CHF to hedge Brexit begin to unwind. The major waterfall looks only to continue with momentum via US election risk and Brexit after the fact impacts (the kind you cannot heal from a political poll in the Times).
In any case, thanks all for keeping the likes and support rolling. As usual jump in the comments with your ideas and charts !!
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Almost a year ago we traded the highs live here:
Trade active
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Tracking closely the highs here, expecting a sweep of stops and smart money to ping the highs to kill the week off.
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We got the sweep ... and rejection !!!
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Momentum triggering below...
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CHF impressive and finding a strong bid on the technical break of 0.984x in USDCHF. Momentum has triggered below... Rather than any changes on the CHF fundamentals, the USD devaluation will control the flows. here
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Momentum kicking in... Superb moves!
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Eyes on the targets here...within reach for the Yearly close !!!
Trade closed: target reached:
An extraordinary swing which we have just dissected.
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Profit taking beginning here with Geneva, I am now flat and will look for positions in Q1.
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