*Yellow = 100 EMA | Blue = 200 EMA
*1D Chart
The CAD has been one of the best-performing currencies in 2019 especially after dovish intentions were interpreted from the Fed. It's risen an overall 4% since January. With the Fed announcing rates tomorrow, we could see further movement from the CAD.
HOWEVER, the CAD has been making moves in the short term that suggest further growth, especially against the Greenback.
Move #1: Suppression of the RSI from mid-March to early-June. This is important because it leads us to believe there will be a breakdown of the price (like what we're seeing) on
USDCAD
.
Move #2: Break of 200 EMA!!! The 200 EMA has been critical on USD/CAD especially since the 100 EMA crossed up on the 200 in mid-March back in 2018. The moving average has acted as support multiple times, the clearest and most recent of which is seen at the beginning and end of February in 2019 along with a more recent example around June 10th (2019). On June 20th we saw a strong candle close below the 200 EMA and have been trading below it since.
Move #3: The Loonie has moved up against numerous currencies like the
EURCAD
and
GBPCAD
. This is it's overall growth, but is particularly important in this case because against the
GBPCAD
and
EURCAD
we saw the "Death Cross" of the 100 EMA down on the 200 EMA signaling bearish sentiment and further downwards momentum.
That's all well, and good, but where are we now?
The bull run we saw in
USDCAD
which started in mid-September, 2012 and hit it's high in mid-January, 2016. However, instead of a reversal, we saw greater consolidation between the 1.25 and 1.36 levels.
Break of trendlines and major support:
a) The first thing to note about the recent drop is that we're sitting at a 0.382 Fibonacci level. Fibonacci levels often help dictate support and resistance, and one of the most important is the 0.382 (In my opinion). If we can break this level, we may be looking at a break of the 0.5 and finally a reversal of the bull run we saw lasting over 4 YEARS.
b) Second is that a trendline is drawn from the start of the bull run in mid-September, 2012 to current day price is relevant and ratified. At the start of the run price consistently bounced off that trendline until July 2014 where we see
USDCAD
take off. HOWEVER, that trendline has seen more touches since the consolidation after 2016, especially more recently between late-September, 2018 to early and late February 2019. That trendline has been BROKEN by recent price action and has us quickly approaching a second one that is shorter between the low in 2017, ratified by another hit in January 2018.
c) We've set a small short term trendline with a healthy angle of 48°- 50°. We've continued to follow this trendline VERY recently with price action respecting it with a downturn earlier this week.
With all these moving parts and the health of the Loonie this past year, it's possible to see further growth hit the $1.2-$1.15 level on
USDCAD
. Keep your eyes peeled!
Good luck traders!
*1D Chart
The CAD has been one of the best-performing currencies in 2019 especially after dovish intentions were interpreted from the Fed. It's risen an overall 4% since January. With the Fed announcing rates tomorrow, we could see further movement from the CAD.
HOWEVER, the CAD has been making moves in the short term that suggest further growth, especially against the Greenback.
Move #1: Suppression of the RSI from mid-March to early-June. This is important because it leads us to believe there will be a breakdown of the price (like what we're seeing) on
USDCAD
. Move #2: Break of 200 EMA!!! The 200 EMA has been critical on USD/CAD especially since the 100 EMA crossed up on the 200 in mid-March back in 2018. The moving average has acted as support multiple times, the clearest and most recent of which is seen at the beginning and end of February in 2019 along with a more recent example around June 10th (2019). On June 20th we saw a strong candle close below the 200 EMA and have been trading below it since.
Move #3: The Loonie has moved up against numerous currencies like the
EURCAD
and
GBPCAD
. This is it's overall growth, but is particularly important in this case because against the
GBPCAD
and
EURCAD
we saw the "Death Cross" of the 100 EMA down on the 200 EMA signaling bearish sentiment and further downwards momentum. That's all well, and good, but where are we now?
The bull run we saw in
USDCAD
which started in mid-September, 2012 and hit it's high in mid-January, 2016. However, instead of a reversal, we saw greater consolidation between the 1.25 and 1.36 levels. Break of trendlines and major support:
a) The first thing to note about the recent drop is that we're sitting at a 0.382 Fibonacci level. Fibonacci levels often help dictate support and resistance, and one of the most important is the 0.382 (In my opinion). If we can break this level, we may be looking at a break of the 0.5 and finally a reversal of the bull run we saw lasting over 4 YEARS.
b) Second is that a trendline is drawn from the start of the bull run in mid-September, 2012 to current day price is relevant and ratified. At the start of the run price consistently bounced off that trendline until July 2014 where we see
USDCAD
take off. HOWEVER, that trendline has seen more touches since the consolidation after 2016, especially more recently between late-September, 2018 to early and late February 2019. That trendline has been BROKEN by recent price action and has us quickly approaching a second one that is shorter between the low in 2017, ratified by another hit in January 2018. c) We've set a small short term trendline with a healthy angle of 48°- 50°. We've continued to follow this trendline VERY recently with price action respecting it with a downturn earlier this week.
With all these moving parts and the health of the Loonie this past year, it's possible to see further growth hit the $1.2-$1.15 level on
USDCAD
. Keep your eyes peeled! Good luck traders!