Shorting to the 12 Day trough,a larger downmove is also possible
Hello Traders,
As I mentioned in my last post, I like to trade a shorter nominal model for this pair as against the standard hurst model.
Having met both the peak targets it's now time for price to come to the 12 Day trough of the nominal 48 day cycle(my primary trade cycle)
These targets are dynamic and change everyday (as I trade EOD), with the change in the FLD.
TARGETS
As I trade the 48 day cycle therefore I look at the 12 Day Future line of Demarcation (FLD) for target generation.
Price is currently above the FLD. Tomorrow's FLD median price, our cross point is at 1.40677, Pivot point will be the peak high, which is at 1.42647 this gives us the target of 1.38707.
Now looking at the price action this target seems a little low as we are bouncing out of a 13 week trough marked of 13th April and we should normally expect more upside than downside. We can have a higher target if the price crosses the FLD not tomorrow but maybe in a couple of days later.
However, looking at the long term phasing of my analysis, the larger trough of 12 month is lurking in the distance and is expected in late june and we are currently in the second half of this 12 month cycle, so we can expect the cycles to be left translated(bearish looking) and magnate towards this 12 month trough. I am not ruling out the possibility of a higher high than the one registered on the 21st of April before descending into the 12 month trough but probability of a larger decline increases with each passing day.
Note: these numbers mentioned above are based on my broker, Alpari internation and not Oanda (the chart above), so there will be slight variations when compared to the Chart above.
As I mentioned in my last post, I like to trade a shorter nominal model for this pair as against the standard hurst model.
Having met both the peak targets it's now time for price to come to the 12 Day trough of the nominal 48 day cycle(my primary trade cycle)
These targets are dynamic and change everyday (as I trade EOD), with the change in the FLD.
TARGETS
As I trade the 48 day cycle therefore I look at the 12 Day Future line of Demarcation (FLD) for target generation.
Price is currently above the FLD. Tomorrow's FLD median price, our cross point is at 1.40677, Pivot point will be the peak high, which is at 1.42647 this gives us the target of 1.38707.
Now looking at the price action this target seems a little low as we are bouncing out of a 13 week trough marked of 13th April and we should normally expect more upside than downside. We can have a higher target if the price crosses the FLD not tomorrow but maybe in a couple of days later.
However, looking at the long term phasing of my analysis, the larger trough of 12 month is lurking in the distance and is expected in late june and we are currently in the second half of this 12 month cycle, so we can expect the cycles to be left translated(bearish looking) and magnate towards this 12 month trough. I am not ruling out the possibility of a higher high than the one registered on the 21st of April before descending into the 12 month trough but probability of a larger decline increases with each passing day.
Note: these numbers mentioned above are based on my broker, Alpari internation and not Oanda (the chart above), so there will be slight variations when compared to the Chart above.
Trade active:
short triggered @ 1.41115
Comment:
price wicked bellow the cross point, should get a clean cross soon.
Trade closed manually:
Hey guys closing the trade in small profit as the weekend is approaching and I think its soon for a short position, price will go up and then down for the 24 day trough