Last summer, as BTC tapped what I thought might be it's pre-halving high of about $31,000 USD, I used ]this indicator to point out that we had tapped the trendline that generally indicates we are at or near a price high for the mini bull cycle inbetween halvings.
It was right... for about 3 months. Then the entire crypto space exploded higher, followed soon by stocks and treasuries.
My theory is a part of that was large purchases of Bitcoin were being made for the ETFs that went live in January.
So, time for a change of plans to figure out where tops and bottoms might be.
One thought is Plan B's "Stock to flow" model, which skewed overly bullish last cycle, maybe it skews conservative this time?
Always hard to say.
I have one interesting chart to share here. Just simply putting BTC on a logarithmic scale and drawing a channel to hit the bottoms from 2018, 2020 and 2022, this meant I had to clip the highs from 2017 and cross the top of the next lowest weekly candles, but it hit the spring high of 2021, but the high in November was below the upper trend line.
Now, this is more bullish than the stock 2 flow model, but hey, this cycle seems different with setting new all time highs BEFORE the halving, and the supply being even more restricted now due to the massive buying to put in these ETFs.
F it, let's go. April 2025 target is $330k.
It was right... for about 3 months. Then the entire crypto space exploded higher, followed soon by stocks and treasuries.
My theory is a part of that was large purchases of Bitcoin were being made for the ETFs that went live in January.
So, time for a change of plans to figure out where tops and bottoms might be.
One thought is Plan B's "Stock to flow" model, which skewed overly bullish last cycle, maybe it skews conservative this time?
Always hard to say.
I have one interesting chart to share here. Just simply putting BTC on a logarithmic scale and drawing a channel to hit the bottoms from 2018, 2020 and 2022, this meant I had to clip the highs from 2017 and cross the top of the next lowest weekly candles, but it hit the spring high of 2021, but the high in November was below the upper trend line.
Now, this is more bullish than the stock 2 flow model, but hey, this cycle seems different with setting new all time highs BEFORE the halving, and the supply being even more restricted now due to the massive buying to put in these ETFs.
F it, let's go. April 2025 target is $330k.
This is me starting with the bottoms from late 2019 to the 2022 bottom, upper channel just barely clipping the top most wicks of spring 2021.
Why cut out the bottom of 2020? Because those were extenuating circumstances where all asset classes were being sold. Also, China had the most miners in 2020 to early '21. China was also the most impacted by the pandemic and its lockdowns.
Even my original channel in the above post clipped out the low wicks from 2020...
Just spit-balling some ideas for price targets as we get near the top after the next halving.
Cheers, and good luck out there trading.