I wrote this some days ago:
In my opinion we will see a longer down cycle. the economy was infected with a virus long before the covid 19. Now we see the beginning results. It's like the virus is now going around in the economy. normally we had 4 to 6 years going up, thereafter we had a correction and the ill/incompetent companies became bankrupt. now, since 11 years we had no such correction....its like a over-doped market driven by central banks and politics. i think we will see a downmarket for at least 1-3 years -this would be normal - in the real world i see that for this year all expenses in the tourism sector is halted 50-70% in construction-sector is halted - and this will influence future investments and so on and so on. In the last crisis we had only one sector with big problems but this time we have nearly all of them - remember Lehman, madoff, general motors, WAMU,.... this time luckin coffee?? No, we are in the beginning of the crash - corona is not the crash its the trigger. I have seen since 1996 a lot of bubbles but never a "allthogetherbubble".
Don't forget the following Next steps in the coming years:
1. crises (civil wars, currency or politics) in "second world" countries like Brazil, southafrica, Venezuela, Vietnam, Bangladesh and "great" britan (India maybe)...this will influence our economies too
2. sovereign debt crisis: US and Europe + England.....this will influence our economy too ;)
3. housing bubbles in Canada, Germany, Austria, Australia, China+-, New Zealand, Sweden, Norway (This time not the US, but a correction will take place too)
point 1. seems like it will happen realy soon - i forgot to say Turkey - globally cash and investments goes back in safe heavens USD and EUR? This is infecting weak economies like brasil and turkey. I think we will soon see others too. All main softcommodities produced in Brasil will suffer. Coffee, sugar, sojbean....
In my opinion we will see a longer down cycle. the economy was infected with a virus long before the covid 19. Now we see the beginning results. It's like the virus is now going around in the economy. normally we had 4 to 6 years going up, thereafter we had a correction and the ill/incompetent companies became bankrupt. now, since 11 years we had no such correction....its like a over-doped market driven by central banks and politics. i think we will see a downmarket for at least 1-3 years -this would be normal - in the real world i see that for this year all expenses in the tourism sector is halted 50-70% in construction-sector is halted - and this will influence future investments and so on and so on. In the last crisis we had only one sector with big problems but this time we have nearly all of them - remember Lehman, madoff, general motors, WAMU,.... this time luckin coffee?? No, we are in the beginning of the crash - corona is not the crash its the trigger. I have seen since 1996 a lot of bubbles but never a "allthogetherbubble".
Don't forget the following Next steps in the coming years:
1. crises (civil wars, currency or politics) in "second world" countries like Brazil, southafrica, Venezuela, Vietnam, Bangladesh and "great" britan (India maybe)...this will influence our economies too
2. sovereign debt crisis: US and Europe + England.....this will influence our economy too ;)
3. housing bubbles in Canada, Germany, Austria, Australia, China+-, New Zealand, Sweden, Norway (This time not the US, but a correction will take place too)
point 1. seems like it will happen realy soon - i forgot to say Turkey - globally cash and investments goes back in safe heavens USD and EUR? This is infecting weak economies like brasil and turkey. I think we will soon see others too. All main softcommodities produced in Brasil will suffer. Coffee, sugar, sojbean....