Unless SPX manages to close a weekly candle above the 1 fib at $3,731 which SPX has been getting rejected by all week, the 200W MA isn't going to hold. Price action this week has me very convinced the 2022 stock market crash is a leading expanding diagonal which generally means wave 5 breaks below wave 3 and is generally the longest wave --> Pain incoming. There will be a massive relief rally eventually, but that's just going to trap more buyers before the big bad flush. I'm thinking a retest of the 2020 lows after Wave C is complete.
SPX is also about to cross a fib ring indicating volatility. 3400 could be the bottom (2020 top, high volume node), but I'm leaning towards a test of the lower pink support trendline and the cluster of fibs at ~$3,250. Should that not hold... things are going to get very ugly very quickly. Today, the bulls laid down on their behinds, and didn't even bother to fight for a close above the 200W MA on a weekly/monthly/quarterly close. Should $3,250 not hold --> $2800-$2900 is on deck. Imo, there will be buying opportunities coming soon. Just got to be patient and wait for the extreme fear and capitulation.
SPX is also about to cross a fib ring indicating volatility. 3400 could be the bottom (2020 top, high volume node), but I'm leaning towards a test of the lower pink support trendline and the cluster of fibs at ~$3,250. Should that not hold... things are going to get very ugly very quickly. Today, the bulls laid down on their behinds, and didn't even bother to fight for a close above the 200W MA on a weekly/monthly/quarterly close. Should $3,250 not hold --> $2800-$2900 is on deck. Imo, there will be buying opportunities coming soon. Just got to be patient and wait for the extreme fear and capitulation.
Comment:
SPX weekly money flow crossover to below 0. Last time bitcoin did that, BTC nosedived from 42k to where it is now, 19k. The Big Bad Bears are strong.
Comment:
Taking the chart off LOG scale, the .618 fib is at ~$3,200. Leaning more towards that will be the end of Wave A of a big bear ABC.
