US30 has recently broken structure to the downside on the higher time frame indicating it wants to continue in its bearish trend however, I believe it will not hold for too long as the over all market is bullish. In terms of current price action I'm expecting for price to continue going down a bit towards the 32600.0 mark.
Scenario (A) is Selling from the current price as it has tapped in a 22hr supply zone that has caused a BOS to the downside. Now price has retraced back into it, wyckoff distribution has played out for us to take sells from the supply we are in. Once we get to the target we can wait for price to show us its hands to decide if we can buy back up to another supply or not.
Scenario (B) would be waiting for price to push higher and take out our current supply zone and eventually tap into the 4hr above where better premium prices are. Not only did it cause a change of character but it also has imbalances below it which is a good sign of that zone being respected. Then we will wait for our lower time frame confirmation in the form of a re distribution and an another CHOCH to sell down towards our designated target of 32600.0
My confluences for US30 shorts are as follows:
- The market has broken structure to the downside on the higher timeframe.
- Price has tapped into a good supply zone (22hr) that has also caused a BOS.
- Wyckoff distribution has taken place and has changed character leaving a good price to sell from.
- There's loads of liquidity to the downside we can target in the form of equal lows, trendline and imbalances.
- The dollar is currently bullish and has been very strong recently so I am expecting this pair to drop more to the downside.
P.S. this is just a short term idea for US30's current market conditions however we have to be cautious when trading this week as there is FOMC on Wednesday and NFP on Friday so trade safe and have a wonderful week ahead!
Scenario (A) is Selling from the current price as it has tapped in a 22hr supply zone that has caused a BOS to the downside. Now price has retraced back into it, wyckoff distribution has played out for us to take sells from the supply we are in. Once we get to the target we can wait for price to show us its hands to decide if we can buy back up to another supply or not.
Scenario (B) would be waiting for price to push higher and take out our current supply zone and eventually tap into the 4hr above where better premium prices are. Not only did it cause a change of character but it also has imbalances below it which is a good sign of that zone being respected. Then we will wait for our lower time frame confirmation in the form of a re distribution and an another CHOCH to sell down towards our designated target of 32600.0
My confluences for US30 shorts are as follows:
- The market has broken structure to the downside on the higher timeframe.
- Price has tapped into a good supply zone (22hr) that has also caused a BOS.
- Wyckoff distribution has taken place and has changed character leaving a good price to sell from.
- There's loads of liquidity to the downside we can target in the form of equal lows, trendline and imbalances.
- The dollar is currently bullish and has been very strong recently so I am expecting this pair to drop more to the downside.
P.S. this is just a short term idea for US30's current market conditions however we have to be cautious when trading this week as there is FOMC on Wednesday and NFP on Friday so trade safe and have a wonderful week ahead!