"armchair general" about the outcome of the current escalations
US30 Forecast
I won't speculate as an "armchair general" about the outcome of the current escalations. From our perspective, last week's significant development was the uptick in consumer price inflation and its implications for future short-term interest rates.
Additionally, there was disappointment with the financial results from JPMorgan and Wells Fargo on Friday. Given this, and as previously observed, risk compensation in equities is relatively poor compared to Treasuries, prompting us to reduce our net-long positions in equities over the past fortnight.
A critical factor is Iran's perception of its retaliation—whether it sees it as a proportional and final response unless prompted further by Israel. In 2020, Iran deemed its retaliation for the U.S.'s assassination of General Soleimani as measured and fair. If the response remains measured, equities might breathe easier, though oil, gold, the dollar, and bonds will likely carry a risk premium reflecting the ongoing conflict.
Technically overview:
The price movement this week will be influenced by the pressure from the first-quarter earnings of the year, along with ongoing tensions in the Middle East. The target for the week is to reach 37,120, and a closure of at least a four-hour candle below this level will confirm the continuation of the bearish trend towards 35,675.
Conversely, a bullish scenario will be initiated if there is a breakthrough above 38,560, setting the stage for the price to ascend towards 40,000 and potentially 41,000.
Pivot line: 38110
Resistance Prices: 38620 & 39460 & 40500
Support Prices: 37250 & 36600 & 35675
The movement range will be between support 37120 and Resistance 38560
Tendency: Looks Bearish
previous weekly chart:
I won't speculate as an "armchair general" about the outcome of the current escalations. From our perspective, last week's significant development was the uptick in consumer price inflation and its implications for future short-term interest rates.
Additionally, there was disappointment with the financial results from JPMorgan and Wells Fargo on Friday. Given this, and as previously observed, risk compensation in equities is relatively poor compared to Treasuries, prompting us to reduce our net-long positions in equities over the past fortnight.
A critical factor is Iran's perception of its retaliation—whether it sees it as a proportional and final response unless prompted further by Israel. In 2020, Iran deemed its retaliation for the U.S.'s assassination of General Soleimani as measured and fair. If the response remains measured, equities might breathe easier, though oil, gold, the dollar, and bonds will likely carry a risk premium reflecting the ongoing conflict.
Technically overview:
The price movement this week will be influenced by the pressure from the first-quarter earnings of the year, along with ongoing tensions in the Middle East. The target for the week is to reach 37,120, and a closure of at least a four-hour candle below this level will confirm the continuation of the bearish trend towards 35,675.
Conversely, a bullish scenario will be initiated if there is a breakthrough above 38,560, setting the stage for the price to ascend towards 40,000 and potentially 41,000.
Pivot line: 38110
Resistance Prices: 38620 & 39460 & 40500
Support Prices: 37250 & 36600 & 35675
The movement range will be between support 37120 and Resistance 38560
Tendency: Looks Bearish
previous weekly chart:
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~6 analyses per day. With a clear entry point
more than 1000 pip per week —— Accuracy +88%
SM World and Economy News 24/7
Urgent News ⚡️:
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