Although I strongly discourage the action of shorting in my personal strategy this doesn't keep me from speculating on the possible price fluctuation of the index. Viewing recent recessionary signals such as the inverted yield curve, raising tensions in the US-China relation as well as US-Mexican relations I've come to the conclusion that there might be something sketchy going on in the markets. Also noting the decision of Neil Woodford to close withdrawals from his fund I've come to the conclusion that there is rising anxiety for investors on the future of stock prices. If this sentiment continues we could see perhaps lower lows than those seen during the December period. I personally believe the recent market rally was driven merely by the good news caused by the increased sales of the holidays and other factors as well, but now entering to one of the usually most negatives stages of the year the fragility of the market could again be exposed.
Additionally, from a technical point of view, we can observe a MACD cross over on the weekly chart. This indicates that the short-term average of price fluctuation is moving lower than the longer 26-period average, therefore, indicating a possible future change in the longer-term average and therefore moving the price lower. Also were positioned in a support level which may be tested and stand strong but with further downward pressure it could easily push through in the near future leading to a strong move to the downside.
Although I don't recommend a strategy based on buy and sell signals I feel the there is a high amount of bearish signals being triggered, not only in the chart but in the news as well as in economic data such as the Yield curve inversion. The low level of unemployment also signals me we're if not at then near full employment which could lead to higher wages and therefore layoffs (this is mear speculation and not based on any fundamental truth).
This analysis remains exactly the same on multiple other indexes such as the SPX, DJIA, and ME (although I belive the ME to be a way more riskier investment given the political situation of Mexico)
My recommendations would be:
1) Play it safe, don't short
2) Have your money on a safe haven such as gold or keep your money liquid
3) Buy once the market has had a significant drop such as the December lows and lower
4) Brace for impact
Additionally, from a technical point of view, we can observe a MACD cross over on the weekly chart. This indicates that the short-term average of price fluctuation is moving lower than the longer 26-period average, therefore, indicating a possible future change in the longer-term average and therefore moving the price lower. Also were positioned in a support level which may be tested and stand strong but with further downward pressure it could easily push through in the near future leading to a strong move to the downside.
Although I don't recommend a strategy based on buy and sell signals I feel the there is a high amount of bearish signals being triggered, not only in the chart but in the news as well as in economic data such as the Yield curve inversion. The low level of unemployment also signals me we're if not at then near full employment which could lead to higher wages and therefore layoffs (this is mear speculation and not based on any fundamental truth).
This analysis remains exactly the same on multiple other indexes such as the SPX, DJIA, and ME (although I belive the ME to be a way more riskier investment given the political situation of Mexico)
My recommendations would be:
1) Play it safe, don't short
2) Have your money on a safe haven such as gold or keep your money liquid
3) Buy once the market has had a significant drop such as the December lows and lower
4) Brace for impact