I've seen now several market Gurus claim on social media that the market will crash only
when FED will commence to the tightening of the monetary policy, as it was always the case in the past.
They claim as FED hasn't started yet, the bull market is deemed to continue.
While the bull market may well continue its uptrend for now for other reasons, these statements are false.
In general, we can all agree there is an inverse relationship between stock market prices
(or market P/E levels) vs real US interest rates. At least that was the case most of the 20th century.
However, since 2000s the relationship is not so clear. We can see on the S&P500 vs UST 10yr that there
were periods where both yields and S&P500 (market) moved higher at the same time.
It's worth mentioning that since the great recession (2007-2009), USD rates are at or very close to zero and this creates an unprecedented environment for the market, monetary policy, and economy. FED continues
printing money, debasing USD at rapid rates, and the actual results and implications of these experiments is yet to be seen.
Also FED I believe will not act for some time, until the 10yr yield touches 2% or 30yr 2.80%. These are just my speculative
expectations, as I believe they will act or "intervene with comments" only when treasuries are close to very expensive borrowing levels.
Just my quick thoughts, after seeing the dry and unthoughtful claims made on social media networks by so-called gurus.