The way I read this chart is as follows:
GLD
is at max inverse correlation with the
US10Y
. Same for
USO
which has reversed a period of positive correlation (due to the monetary expansion driven growth) and is also now in maximum reverse correlation. As of this Gold offers a materially better investment profile versus Oil.
SP500
is as well in inverse correlation with the US10Y, but this correlation appears more cyclical and can reverse once the damage to the economy and market starts going too far (flow into the safety of US treasuries).
As such Gold seems the preferable instrument in taking a contrarian view regarding the reversal of bonds , getting protection against a tail event , and upside exposure in case of a melt up . In case of a further US10YR increase the downside risk can be limited by a short trade on the EUR.
Counterthesis to a long Gold position is Scenario 4 , but in all other states of the world the investment profile of Gold is really compelling and this could start driving inflows at this point.
Sc 1 - Accident : Gold + / USD + / SP - / 10Yr - (inverse correlation remains)
Sc 2 - Risk on : Gold + / USD - /SP + / 10 yr - (inverse correlation remains)
Sc 3 - Inflation and rate hikes : Gold - / USD + / SP - / 10 yr + (inverse correlation remains)
Sc 4 - Recession : Gold - / USD ? / SP - / 10 yr - (inverse correlation breaks)
GLD
is at max inverse correlation with the
US10Y
. Same for
USO
which has reversed a period of positive correlation (due to the monetary expansion driven growth) and is also now in maximum reverse correlation. As of this Gold offers a materially better investment profile versus Oil.
SP500
is as well in inverse correlation with the US10Y, but this correlation appears more cyclical and can reverse once the damage to the economy and market starts going too far (flow into the safety of US treasuries). As such Gold seems the preferable instrument in taking a contrarian view regarding the reversal of bonds , getting protection against a tail event , and upside exposure in case of a melt up . In case of a further US10YR increase the downside risk can be limited by a short trade on the EUR.
Counterthesis to a long Gold position is Scenario 4 , but in all other states of the world the investment profile of Gold is really compelling and this could start driving inflows at this point.
Sc 1 - Accident : Gold + / USD + / SP - / 10Yr - (inverse correlation remains)
Sc 2 - Risk on : Gold + / USD - /SP + / 10 yr - (inverse correlation remains)
Sc 3 - Inflation and rate hikes : Gold - / USD + / SP - / 10 yr + (inverse correlation remains)
Sc 4 - Recession : Gold - / USD ? / SP - / 10 yr - (inverse correlation breaks)