July is historically a strong month with great expectation for 2nd half.
I believe the macro conditions remains strong, which means the fed effort to eleviate the demand side so far is not enough to derail the inflation. the expectation of inflation YoY is currently at 8.8%, greater than 8.6% recorded last month. that's a very bad news.
However, it should not come as a supprise at this point. In fact, a majority of commodity including fuel and coper already show signs of pulling pack. That's why market get high hope for pricing in the peak of inflation and get a considerable rally recently.
The market is always forwards looking, but i believe at this point the market is way too much forwards looking, up to extent of easing in the future, which is said to be 2 years from now. That's not quite a sustainable catalyst for a vurnerable market.
Therefore, any rally with high hope is very likely to be corrected, then sideway and even heading for lower low structure. Unfortunately, it's happening again now. This structure has occured in last 30 days and very high chance of materialized again when having sufficient catalyst, which is pointing to the next CPI report, option expriration, and essentially rate hike FOMC meeting.
Struture:
These consecutive events will first lift the sentiment for a fake breakout to suck in the bull, creating a trap then a retest for this top a 2nd time, then the real breakout to the downside.
Hope this will shed light on this massive trading month. Be prepared, Be nimble.
Cheers,
Prof Phat
I believe the macro conditions remains strong, which means the fed effort to eleviate the demand side so far is not enough to derail the inflation. the expectation of inflation YoY is currently at 8.8%, greater than 8.6% recorded last month. that's a very bad news.
However, it should not come as a supprise at this point. In fact, a majority of commodity including fuel and coper already show signs of pulling pack. That's why market get high hope for pricing in the peak of inflation and get a considerable rally recently.
The market is always forwards looking, but i believe at this point the market is way too much forwards looking, up to extent of easing in the future, which is said to be 2 years from now. That's not quite a sustainable catalyst for a vurnerable market.
Therefore, any rally with high hope is very likely to be corrected, then sideway and even heading for lower low structure. Unfortunately, it's happening again now. This structure has occured in last 30 days and very high chance of materialized again when having sufficient catalyst, which is pointing to the next CPI report, option expriration, and essentially rate hike FOMC meeting.
Struture:
These consecutive events will first lift the sentiment for a fake breakout to suck in the bull, creating a trap then a retest for this top a 2nd time, then the real breakout to the downside.
Hope this will shed light on this massive trading month. Be prepared, Be nimble.
Cheers,
Prof Phat
Comment:
740 point running.
More coming ? Very likely but its just hit the neutral defense price.
Its probable to close some, and let a few left to run.
Congrats,
Cheers
More coming ? Very likely but its just hit the neutral defense price.
Its probable to close some, and let a few left to run.
Congrats,
Cheers
will it be another pull ?
very likely since the energy of bears is accumulating, not fully releasing. that's a warning. stay nimble