S3
13215.8
S2
13240
S1
13251.1
R1
13275.3
R2
13288.4
R3
13312.6
My current strategy Bullish
I asked chatgpt how she sees US100 of the future.
And the answer is not too far away of my researches. I tried to visualize chatgpt answer
The blue cuve is the pojected price developement by chatgpt.
A little fun factor, so dont take it seriousely and letS STOCK TO OUR OWN TRADINGPLAN
CURRENTLY THE PROJECTED DEVELOPEMENT our own signals are sync.
But I will closely compare chatgpt tadingplan and mine. So you can do the same ,if you like.
Please feel welcomed to comment and shareyour ideas and inspire us as well.
At leasst trades do nothing else, but trading the future possible events and developements at the current time being.
Interesting is, that the most pice reverseals sync nealy closed to the prior Vps.
I remember a quote of Richar Dennis, the foundeof the TurtleTaders:
Traders ae the stundents of the makets.
13215.8
S2
13240
S1
13251.1
R1
13275.3
R2
13288.4
R3
13312.6
My current strategy Bullish
I asked chatgpt how she sees US100 of the future.
And the answer is not too far away of my researches. I tried to visualize chatgpt answer
The blue cuve is the pojected price developement by chatgpt.
A little fun factor, so dont take it seriousely and letS STOCK TO OUR OWN TRADINGPLAN
CURRENTLY THE PROJECTED DEVELOPEMENT our own signals are sync.
But I will closely compare chatgpt tadingplan and mine. So you can do the same ,if you like.
Please feel welcomed to comment and shareyour ideas and inspire us as well.
At leasst trades do nothing else, but trading the future possible events and developements at the current time being.
Interesting is, that the most pice reverseals sync nealy closed to the prior Vps.
I remember a quote of Richar Dennis, the foundeof the TurtleTaders:
Traders ae the stundents of the makets.
Comment:
US Stocks RiseUnited States Stock Market
US stocks were in the green on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones rising more than 180 points, the S&P 500 up 0.5% and the Nasdaq gaining 0.4% as traders continue to follow the debt ceiling standoff, corporate results and a rebound in regional bank shares. Congressional leaders said Tuesday's talks on the debt limit were productive, but they're still far from a deal and would continue to have meetings later this week. Meanwhile, shares of Western Alliance Bancorp surged more than 10% after the lender reported growth in deposits this quarter. Also, Tesla stocks were up almost 1% after Elon Musk said the company will start to advertise its cars. On the other hand, earnings and revenue from Target topped forecasts but the shares were falling 1.1% after warning of softening sales trend.
US stocks were in the green on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones rising more than 180 points, the S&P 500 up 0.5% and the Nasdaq gaining 0.4% as traders continue to follow the debt ceiling standoff, corporate results and a rebound in regional bank shares. Congressional leaders said Tuesday's talks on the debt limit were productive, but they're still far from a deal and would continue to have meetings later this week. Meanwhile, shares of Western Alliance Bancorp surged more than 10% after the lender reported growth in deposits this quarter. Also, Tesla stocks were up almost 1% after Elon Musk said the company will start to advertise its cars. On the other hand, earnings and revenue from Target topped forecasts but the shares were falling 1.1% after warning of softening sales trend.
Comment:
US Housing Starts Unexpectedly Rise
Housing starts in the US unexpectedly increased 2.2% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.401 million in April of 2023, compared to market forecasts of 1.4 million. Data for March was revised sharply lower to 1.37 million from 1.42 million, as high prices, interest rates, and tighter lending standards continue to weigh. Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, increased 1.6% to a four-month high of 846K and starts in buildings with five units or more surged by 5.2% to 542K. Starts rose in the West (34.6% to 315K) and the Midwest (32.6% to 171K) but fell in the Northeast (-23.4% to 131K) and the South (-6.3% to 784K).
Housing starts in the US unexpectedly increased 2.2% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.401 million in April of 2023, compared to market forecasts of 1.4 million. Data for March was revised sharply lower to 1.37 million from 1.42 million, as high prices, interest rates, and tighter lending standards continue to weigh. Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, increased 1.6% to a four-month high of 846K and starts in buildings with five units or more surged by 5.2% to 542K. Starts rose in the West (34.6% to 315K) and the Midwest (32.6% to 171K) but fell in the Northeast (-23.4% to 131K) and the South (-6.3% to 784K).
Comment:
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note continued to march higher to top 3.6%, a level not seen in nearly two months, as investors follow the debt ceiling standoff and try to assess the Fed's next steps. Congressional lawmakers and President Biden expressed optimism on a deal and said the US will not default. At the same time, bets the Fed will cut rates this year fell and the chances of a pause in rate hikes in June also weakened. Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan said Thursday current economic data doesn't justify yet pausing the rate hiking-cycle. Retail sales data released this week showed consumer spending remained resilient and initial claims fell more than anticipated.
Comment:
US stock futures edged higher on Friday after the major averages gained during Thursday’s regular session, as easing concerns about the US debt ceiling crisis and upbeat corporate earnings results lifted market sentiment. Dow and S&P 500 futures rose about 0.1%, while Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 0.3%. In regular trading on Thursday, the S&P 500 climbed 0.94% and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.21%, with both benchmarks hitting their highest levels since August, while the Dow rose 0.34%. Seven out of the 11 S&P sectors finished higher, led to the upside by technology, communication services and consumer discretionary. Investors continued to monitor negotiations on the US debt ceiling, with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy suggesting a potential deal could come as soon as next week. Positive corporate updates from major firms also boosted sentiment, with Nvidia surging nearly 5% after announcing it joined ServiceNow to build AI for enterprises.
Comment:
This week:
s+p500
4193 to 4180 should be filled. I am looking bearish this week until sp500 goes to around 4160.
There I will be prepared for a buy, if volume sinks, and we have a bullish signal. The volume has to be increase, while the price gos up again.
If not so, it could mean, that important news, what the public does not know will arrive soon.In this case I willstay out.
If we have buy presure, the target will be 4180, we hold above it, we go then to 4223, and then 4277, cuz there no resistance
Nasdaq US100
Big LVN zone 13563-13606 and a single close at 13689 and 13750
I am expecting that coming down and correction.No! I want to have this correction, before US100 begins a big buy pressure at this level and rise higher.
My bullish target will be then 13952,13999,14218 and 14298
There we have nearly no resistances
In case US100 falls below 13606,
it nears of 13518 but latestly 13350. There are my next Bulls waiting to welcome the bears and support the strong Buy pressure.
Bitcoin.Possibly will come down to 2395 area before the Buying pressure begins.
It has to go above 27700. If we start sideways and the volume reducing, I will take the first Profits, and wait for a second ,but powerfull bullish run.
Then we had the pullback to 38,2 Fib which is a bullflag level,
We pushed then the high ,and higher highs which was wonderful
Gold: we had very strong impulse from 1618 to 1973
Then we had the pullback to 38,2 Fib which is a bullflag level,
We pushed then the high ,and higher highs which was wonderful
The profit taking on the Highs put back Gold in a correction mode,
I am expecting Gold will come down to 1900-1936 (62%Fib.) and then we attack 2150, and then 2212.5
Important is: Gold must Close this week above 1900-1920.
If it doesn´t and falls below this level, then we will see 1840 agin. It will be a ull trend, ,but it will need longer to climb higher.
If we close above 1920 this Friday, then possibly in the next 14 Days Gold will RISE HIGHER...
s+p500
4193 to 4180 should be filled. I am looking bearish this week until sp500 goes to around 4160.
There I will be prepared for a buy, if volume sinks, and we have a bullish signal. The volume has to be increase, while the price gos up again.
If not so, it could mean, that important news, what the public does not know will arrive soon.In this case I willstay out.
If we have buy presure, the target will be 4180, we hold above it, we go then to 4223, and then 4277, cuz there no resistance
Nasdaq US100
Big LVN zone 13563-13606 and a single close at 13689 and 13750
I am expecting that coming down and correction.No! I want to have this correction, before US100 begins a big buy pressure at this level and rise higher.
My bullish target will be then 13952,13999,14218 and 14298
There we have nearly no resistances
In case US100 falls below 13606,
it nears of 13518 but latestly 13350. There are my next Bulls waiting to welcome the bears and support the strong Buy pressure.
Bitcoin.Possibly will come down to 2395 area before the Buying pressure begins.
It has to go above 27700. If we start sideways and the volume reducing, I will take the first Profits, and wait for a second ,but powerfull bullish run.
Then we had the pullback to 38,2 Fib which is a bullflag level,
We pushed then the high ,and higher highs which was wonderful
Gold: we had very strong impulse from 1618 to 1973
Then we had the pullback to 38,2 Fib which is a bullflag level,
We pushed then the high ,and higher highs which was wonderful
The profit taking on the Highs put back Gold in a correction mode,
I am expecting Gold will come down to 1900-1936 (62%Fib.) and then we attack 2150, and then 2212.5
Important is: Gold must Close this week above 1900-1920.
If it doesn´t and falls below this level, then we will see 1840 agin. It will be a ull trend, ,but it will need longer to climb higher.
If we close above 1920 this Friday, then possibly in the next 14 Days Gold will RISE HIGHER...
Comment:
Friday26.May is the Big Day of this week
US Stocks Lack Direction as Investors Eye Debt Ceiling and Inflation report
the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rebounded from early losses to trade slightly higher at 3.7%, the highest since mid-March, as traders assess the monetary policy outlook and the debt ceiling impasse in the US. On Monday, Fed’s Kashkari said a June rate pause or hike is a close call and St. Louis Fed President Bullard said the Fed may still need to raise rates by another half-point this year. Last Friday, Fed Chair Powell mentioned that because of stress in the banking sector, it might be unnecessary to further raise rates to curb inflation. The likelihood of a pause in the rate hike cycle has been fluctuating, but currently, traders are assigning a 78% probability that the Fed will maintain the rates steady in June. Simultaneously, President Biden is scheduled to meet with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy on Monday to continue negotiations regarding the debt ceiling. This follows an unsuccessful meeting between key negotiators on Friday.
US stocks traded around the flatline on Monday, as investors remain concerned about the sustainability of US government debt. President Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy are set to continue negotiations on the debt ceiling today following a failed meeting on Friday. Treasury Secretary Yellen said on Sunday that the likelihood of the Treasury paying all US bills by June 15th is quite low. Meanwhile, traders continue to follow comments from several Fed officials: Fed’s Kashkari said a June rate pause or hike is a close call and St. Louis Fed President Bullard said the Fed may still need to raise rates by another half-point this year. On the corporate front, shares of Micron Technology fell nearly 4% after China banned some Chinese tech manufacturers from using the company's chips. Stocks of Apple were also down about 1% after Loop Capital downgraded its stock to hold from buy. Meta stocks were also under pressure after the firm has been fined by European regulators.
US futures were around the flatline on Monday, as investors remain concerned about the sustainability of US government debt. President Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy are set to continue negotiations on the debt ceiling today following a failed meeting on Friday. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Sunday that the likelihood of the Treasury paying all US bills by June 15th is quite low. On the corporate front, shares of Micron Technology fell more than 4% in premarket trading after China banned some Chinese tech manufacturers from using the company's chips. Stocks of Apple were also down about 1% after Loop Capital downgraded the company’s stock to hold from buy. Meta stocks lost nearly 1% after the firm has been fined a record €1.2 billion by European privacy regulators.
US Stocks Lack Direction as Investors Eye Debt Ceiling and Inflation report
the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rebounded from early losses to trade slightly higher at 3.7%, the highest since mid-March, as traders assess the monetary policy outlook and the debt ceiling impasse in the US. On Monday, Fed’s Kashkari said a June rate pause or hike is a close call and St. Louis Fed President Bullard said the Fed may still need to raise rates by another half-point this year. Last Friday, Fed Chair Powell mentioned that because of stress in the banking sector, it might be unnecessary to further raise rates to curb inflation. The likelihood of a pause in the rate hike cycle has been fluctuating, but currently, traders are assigning a 78% probability that the Fed will maintain the rates steady in June. Simultaneously, President Biden is scheduled to meet with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy on Monday to continue negotiations regarding the debt ceiling. This follows an unsuccessful meeting between key negotiators on Friday.
US stocks traded around the flatline on Monday, as investors remain concerned about the sustainability of US government debt. President Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy are set to continue negotiations on the debt ceiling today following a failed meeting on Friday. Treasury Secretary Yellen said on Sunday that the likelihood of the Treasury paying all US bills by June 15th is quite low. Meanwhile, traders continue to follow comments from several Fed officials: Fed’s Kashkari said a June rate pause or hike is a close call and St. Louis Fed President Bullard said the Fed may still need to raise rates by another half-point this year. On the corporate front, shares of Micron Technology fell nearly 4% after China banned some Chinese tech manufacturers from using the company's chips. Stocks of Apple were also down about 1% after Loop Capital downgraded its stock to hold from buy. Meta stocks were also under pressure after the firm has been fined by European regulators.
US futures were around the flatline on Monday, as investors remain concerned about the sustainability of US government debt. President Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy are set to continue negotiations on the debt ceiling today following a failed meeting on Friday. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Sunday that the likelihood of the Treasury paying all US bills by June 15th is quite low. On the corporate front, shares of Micron Technology fell more than 4% in premarket trading after China banned some Chinese tech manufacturers from using the company's chips. Stocks of Apple were also down about 1% after Loop Capital downgraded the company’s stock to hold from buy. Meta stocks lost nearly 1% after the firm has been fined a record €1.2 billion by European privacy regulators.
Comment:
U.S. stock index futures are showing a positive trend on Wednesday morning, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rising by 46 points (0.14% increase), S&P 500 futuresexperiencing a slight uptick of 0.16%, and Nasdaq 100 futures seeing a gain of 0.15%.
Traders are closely monitoring the ongoing debt-ceiling negotiations. And they are eagerly awaiting the release of the Federal Reserve’s May meeting minutes for insights into future monetary policy decisions.
Traders are closely monitoring the ongoing debt-ceiling negotiations. And they are eagerly awaiting the release of the Federal Reserve’s May meeting minutes for insights into future monetary policy decisions.
Comment:
Selling Pressure,Weakenning of UsDollar, thats good for Euro. Strong Euro is GOOD,no VERY GOOD for SP500;NASDAQ;DOW JONES; GOLD;BITCOIN;CRYPTOS: Everything against Dollar.
Look also my NVIDIA Forecast Chart performed: Nailed it! Weak US DOllar also good for Tech Stocks, Bio Pharma and Tech have Highly positive correltions with Bitcoin and Ethereum, and vice versa. NVIDIA : Top Performer
Friday is the Big Day of the Week: aND IT WILL BE VERY BUISY. RGHT AFTER THE bELL PMI and Inflation DATA!
Look also my NVIDIA Forecast Chart performed: Nailed it! Weak US DOllar also good for Tech Stocks, Bio Pharma and Tech have Highly positive correltions with Bitcoin and Ethereum, and vice versa. NVIDIA : Top Performer
Friday is the Big Day of the Week: aND IT WILL BE VERY BUISY. RGHT AFTER THE bELL PMI and Inflation DATA!
Comment:
Market UpDATES:
NASDQ100 US100 and Indices Sky Rocketing after FED pivot reates cooling
Nasdaq breaking 14055 easily as forecasted in my analysis : Next Target 14350
NVIDAI Sky ROCKETING(Watch als my other Forecasts USD/US100/USDJPY/GOLD/EURO- Related Markets)
Godl Found More Buyers on support.More Bullish Delat coming in nEXT TO 2000USD)
Medium-term price action on the daily chart exhibits scope to extend losses. The longer-term ascending channel is interesting (drawn from $1,641 and $1,959). Note that price action FAILED to touch gloves with the upper boundary in recent trading, pencilling in highs just ahead of the all-time high of $2,075.
Investment Sentiment rising higher from Lows:More Bulls
The Key Fed Inflation Rate Is Cooling At Pivotal Time For The S&P 500
EURO/USD Taking Profits +More Bulls Accumulation and Buying Pressure /Support 1,4075
NASDQ100 US100 and Indices Sky Rocketing after FED pivot reates cooling
Nasdaq breaking 14055 easily as forecasted in my analysis : Next Target 14350
NVIDAI Sky ROCKETING(Watch als my other Forecasts USD/US100/USDJPY/GOLD/EURO- Related Markets)
Godl Found More Buyers on support.More Bullish Delat coming in nEXT TO 2000USD)
Medium-term price action on the daily chart exhibits scope to extend losses. The longer-term ascending channel is interesting (drawn from $1,641 and $1,959). Note that price action FAILED to touch gloves with the upper boundary in recent trading, pencilling in highs just ahead of the all-time high of $2,075.
Investment Sentiment rising higher from Lows:More Bulls
The Key Fed Inflation Rate Is Cooling At Pivotal Time For The S&P 500
EURO/USD Taking Profits +More Bulls Accumulation and Buying Pressure /Support 1,4075
Comment:
opened above Monthly open.Trend bullish
Comment:
Markets steady ahead of final push on the debt deal
After long weekends in many parts of the world, FX markets are returning to some progress on the US debt ceiling. President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy have reached a two-year deal. That deal will be assessed by the House Rules Committee today and, if approved, will likely go to a vote in the House tomorrow. Both Democrat and Republican leaders feel they have the votes to get the deal through Congress – although at times like these, there may be a few holdout politicians who like their day in the sun.
After long weekends in many parts of the world, FX markets are returning to some progress on the US debt ceiling. President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy have reached a two-year deal. That deal will be assessed by the House Rules Committee today and, if approved, will likely go to a vote in the House tomorrow. Both Democrat and Republican leaders feel they have the votes to get the deal through Congress – although at times like these, there may be a few holdout politicians who like their day in the sun.
Comment:
Biden and House Speaker McCarthy reached an agreement on Saturday and the House vote is expected to take place on Wednesday. However, several Republicans have stated that they will not vote in favor of it. Most Ai stocks were still up after Nvidia rose as much as 4% earlier in the session, briefly hitting a $1 trillion market cap. Tesla also held gains after Elon Musk told Chinese foreign minister Qin Gang that he was willing to expand business in the country. On the other hand, energy stocks were among the worst performers dragged down by a 4% decline in oil prices.
Comment:
The Fed meets next week and expectations of another rate increase are rising, particularly given the growing hopes the U.S. economy is headed for a 'soft landing' after Congress's approval last week of a debt ceiling deal that averts U.S. default.
The Fed enters its traditional blackout period this week, but there is more data to digest, including the ISM services PMI later Monday, which is expected to point to a still solid rate of expansion.
The Fed enters its traditional blackout period this week, but there is more data to digest, including the ISM services PMI later Monday, which is expected to point to a still solid rate of expansion.
Comment:
DXY Falls after Weekly Claims
The dollar index dropped to as low as 103.58 on Thursday after higher-than-anticipated weekly claims reduced expectations of an imminent interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. Market participants anticipate that the Federal Reserve will temporarily halt its cycle of interest rate increases before resuming them in July, but unexpected rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada have increased the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike already next week. Nevertheless, the Federal Reserve's decision could be influenced by the release of May's consumer inflation data, scheduled for a day before the central bank's meeting, which is projected to indicate a 0.3% increase in prices.
Initial Jobless Claims Jump to 2021-Highs
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits jumped to 261K in the week ended June 3rd 2023, the highest figure since October 2021, and above market forecasts of 235K. Figures for the previous week were revised slightly higher to 233K from an initial 232K. It marks a third consecutive week of increases in the number of initial jobless claims, in a sign the labour market strenght may be fading. The 4-week moving average which removes week-to-week volatility was 237.25K, an increase of 7.5K from the previous week. Based on unadjusted data, the largest increases in initial claims were in Ohio (6.345K), California (5.173K), and Minnesota (2.746K), while the largest decreases were in Connecticut (-2.35K) and NY (-1.243K). Meanwhile, continuing claims fell to 1757K from 1794K, below forecasts of 1800K.
The dollar index dropped to as low as 103.58 on Thursday after higher-than-anticipated weekly claims reduced expectations of an imminent interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. Market participants anticipate that the Federal Reserve will temporarily halt its cycle of interest rate increases before resuming them in July, but unexpected rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada have increased the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike already next week. Nevertheless, the Federal Reserve's decision could be influenced by the release of May's consumer inflation data, scheduled for a day before the central bank's meeting, which is projected to indicate a 0.3% increase in prices.
Initial Jobless Claims Jump to 2021-Highs
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits jumped to 261K in the week ended June 3rd 2023, the highest figure since October 2021, and above market forecasts of 235K. Figures for the previous week were revised slightly higher to 233K from an initial 232K. It marks a third consecutive week of increases in the number of initial jobless claims, in a sign the labour market strenght may be fading. The 4-week moving average which removes week-to-week volatility was 237.25K, an increase of 7.5K from the previous week. Based on unadjusted data, the largest increases in initial claims were in Ohio (6.345K), California (5.173K), and Minnesota (2.746K), while the largest decreases were in Connecticut (-2.35K) and NY (-1.243K). Meanwhile, continuing claims fell to 1757K from 1794K, below forecasts of 1800K.
Comment:
US Wholesale Inventories Fall for 2nd Month
Wholesale inventories in the US decreased 0.1% month-over-month in April 2023, less than earlier estimates of a 0.2% fall and following a downwardly revised 0.2% drop in March. Inventories fell for nondurables (-1.2% vs -0.5% in March), mostly drugs (-0.8%), apparel (-2.3%), and farm products (-7.1%). On the other hand stocks for durable goods rose 0.6% (vs a flat reading in March). Compared to a year earlier, wholesale inventories jumped 6.3%.
Wholesale inventories in the US decreased 0.1% month-over-month in April 2023, less than earlier estimates of a 0.2% fall and following a downwardly revised 0.2% drop in March. Inventories fell for nondurables (-1.2% vs -0.5% in March), mostly drugs (-0.8%), apparel (-2.3%), and farm products (-7.1%). On the other hand stocks for durable goods rose 0.6% (vs a flat reading in March). Compared to a year earlier, wholesale inventories jumped 6.3%.
Comment:
t will be a busy week in the US, with the Fed interest rate decision, inflation rate, retail sales, and Michigan consumer sentiment taking the central stage. Investors will closely follow the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan monetary policy meetings. Additionally, China will be releasing industrial production, retail sales, and fixed asset investment data, while India will announce its inflation rate and industrial production figures. Other important releases include Germany's ZEW Business Confidence, UK's trade balance and GDP for April, and Australia's consumer and business confidence as well as jobless rate.
Comment:
Asian Stock Market: Bulls and bears jostle at monthly top ahead of central bank decisions
Asia-Pacific shares grind near one-month highs amid cautious mood.
Softer Japan inflation, hopes of no PBOC rate hike underpin mildly positive risk appetite.
Holidays in Australia, light calendar elsewhere join pre-Fed anxiety to limit market moves.
Gold price is looking to extend Friday’s pullback from five-day highs of $1,973 on Monday. Despite the retreat, Gold price maintains its last week’s range, as investors turn cautious ahead of a big week, with eyes on the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) and US Federal Reserve policy announcements
USD/JPY strengthens beyond mid-139.00s on modest USD uptick, lacks bullish conviction
USD/CHF Price Analysis: Bounces off 200-SMA but recovery remains elusive below 0.9100
GBPUSD SHORT on hawkish FED
SHORT
DAX40 Will Rise much more Higher
LONG
Asia-Pacific shares grind near one-month highs amid cautious mood.
Softer Japan inflation, hopes of no PBOC rate hike underpin mildly positive risk appetite.
Holidays in Australia, light calendar elsewhere join pre-Fed anxiety to limit market moves.
Gold price is looking to extend Friday’s pullback from five-day highs of $1,973 on Monday. Despite the retreat, Gold price maintains its last week’s range, as investors turn cautious ahead of a big week, with eyes on the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) and US Federal Reserve policy announcements
USD/JPY strengthens beyond mid-139.00s on modest USD uptick, lacks bullish conviction
USD/CHF Price Analysis: Bounces off 200-SMA but recovery remains elusive below 0.9100
SHORT
DAX40 Will Rise much more Higher
LONG
Comment:
US Fed, BOJ, ECB Are Set to Announce Policies This Week
Comment:
US100
long
nasdaq100 us100 we go to 15200 where the profit taking and reveras begins US100 Long Rises Higher to 15200zone,the possible correction
US100
long nasdaq100 us100 we go to 15200 where the profit taking and reveras begins US100 Long Rises Higher to 15200zone,the possible correction
Comment:
US Dollar Index: DXY fades recovery below 104.00 on downbeat Fed bets, US inflation eyed
US Dollar Index struggles to extend the previous day’s corrective bounce off three-week low, snaps two-day winning streak.
Markets remain nearly sure of witnessing no rate hike from Fed in June but concerns about July stay dicey.
Bond market moves, challenges to sentiment prod DXY bears ahead of the key US CPI.
Core CPI will be closely observed as high inflation can allow FOMC to remain hawkish despite no rate hike decision.
US Dollar Index (DXY) remains pressured around 103.60 as it fades the previous two-day winning streak on Tuesday as the key US inflation data looms. That said, the greenback’s gauge versus the six major currencies rose in the last two consecutive days amid the market’s positioning for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) pause to the rate hike trajectory. However, the recently mixed concerns about the US central bank’s future moves join the challenges to the sentiment to prod the DXY buyers ahead of an important data point for the markets.
It’s worth noting that a study from the San Francisco Fed about the correlation between wage growth and inflation could be cited as the reason for the US central bank to remain less hawkish, which in turn weighs on the DXY, apart from the pre-data anxiety. The survey concluded that wage growth has a very small impact on inflation, which in turn raises doubts about the central bankers’ emphasis on wage cost numbers as a source of information to gauge inflation pressure.
Talking about the latest challenges to sentiment, a trade dispute is developing after the US expands its ban on imports from Xinjiang. China vows to protect China firms against any US sanctions, per Reuters. Recently, Bloomberg released prepared remarks of US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s scheduled Testimony in front of the House Financial Services Committee as she said that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB) serve as important counterweights to nontransparent, unsustainable lending from others, like China.
Additionally, the increase in the bets favoring the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 0.25% rate hike in July also prod optimism and put a floor under the US Dollar Index. It should be noted that the CME’s FedWatch Tool suggests nearly limited scope for the US central bank to act on Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
Looking ahead, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for May will be in the spotlight as the Fed decision looms on Wednesday. That said, the market forecasts of witnessing no change in the Core CPI MoM figure of 0.4% gain major attention as softer figures could push back the July rate hike concerns and may not allow the Fed to sound hawkish, which in turn can drown the US Dollar.
US Dollar Index struggles to extend the previous day’s corrective bounce off three-week low, snaps two-day winning streak.
Markets remain nearly sure of witnessing no rate hike from Fed in June but concerns about July stay dicey.
Bond market moves, challenges to sentiment prod DXY bears ahead of the key US CPI.
Core CPI will be closely observed as high inflation can allow FOMC to remain hawkish despite no rate hike decision.
US Dollar Index (DXY) remains pressured around 103.60 as it fades the previous two-day winning streak on Tuesday as the key US inflation data looms. That said, the greenback’s gauge versus the six major currencies rose in the last two consecutive days amid the market’s positioning for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) pause to the rate hike trajectory. However, the recently mixed concerns about the US central bank’s future moves join the challenges to the sentiment to prod the DXY buyers ahead of an important data point for the markets.
It’s worth noting that a study from the San Francisco Fed about the correlation between wage growth and inflation could be cited as the reason for the US central bank to remain less hawkish, which in turn weighs on the DXY, apart from the pre-data anxiety. The survey concluded that wage growth has a very small impact on inflation, which in turn raises doubts about the central bankers’ emphasis on wage cost numbers as a source of information to gauge inflation pressure.
Talking about the latest challenges to sentiment, a trade dispute is developing after the US expands its ban on imports from Xinjiang. China vows to protect China firms against any US sanctions, per Reuters. Recently, Bloomberg released prepared remarks of US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s scheduled Testimony in front of the House Financial Services Committee as she said that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB) serve as important counterweights to nontransparent, unsustainable lending from others, like China.
Additionally, the increase in the bets favoring the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 0.25% rate hike in July also prod optimism and put a floor under the US Dollar Index. It should be noted that the CME’s FedWatch Tool suggests nearly limited scope for the US central bank to act on Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
Looking ahead, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for May will be in the spotlight as the Fed decision looms on Wednesday. That said, the market forecasts of witnessing no change in the Core CPI MoM figure of 0.4% gain major attention as softer figures could push back the July rate hike concerns and may not allow the Fed to sound hawkish, which in turn can drown the US Dollar.
Comment:
European equity markets were set for a positive open on Friday, tracking global peers higher amid bets that US interest rates could be nearing their peak as the American economy loses momentum and after the Federal Reserve paused its tightening campaign in June. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank opted to raise interest rates by another 25 basis points, with ECB President Christine Lagarde saying ‘we are not thinking about pausing.” Investors now look ahead to final euro zone inflation figures and wage growth data for further clues on the economy and future monetary policy. DAX futures jumped 0.9%, Stoxx 600 futures gained 0.5% and FTSE 100 futures edged up 0.2% in premarket trade.
Comment:
The Dow finished more than 100 points below the flatline on Friday, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq lost nearly 0.4% and 0.7%, respectively, as investors continued to assess the outlook of monetary policy for the Fed amid a massive options expiration at the second 2023’s quadruple witching date. Among stocks, Microsoft fell 1.7% and Micron Technology dropped 1.7%. Conversely, Virgin Galactic surged 16.3% on plans for commercial space tourism. Tesla added 1.8% after hitting a 37-week high during the session and Adobe gained 0.8% with positive earnings and guidance. On the week, the Dow Jones added 0.9%, marking a three-week winning streak despite the Fed's warning of future rate hikes. The S&P 500 gained 2.2%, its fifth consecutive weekly gain, the longest since November 2021, rising 2.2%. The Nasdaq was up 2.7% for an eighth straight positive week. Markets will be closed on Monday for the Juneteenth holiday.
Comment:
BTC Bears Target Sub-$26,000 on SEC v Binance and Ripple Battles
BTC was flat this morning, with regulatory uncertainty stemming from the SEC lawsuits against Ripple, Binance, and Coinbase testing buyer appetite.
The market structure and momentum of Bitcoin was bearish, but its bounce back above $26k gave bears some food for thought.
Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 turned negative over May. This meant that the index has an overall bullish outlook, but Bitcoin has trended in the opposite direction in recent weeks. The increasing hostility from regulatory bodies in the United States has played a part in BTC’s misfortunes on the price chart.
There was an argument to be made that Bitcoin showed some signs of recovery. Yet, an analysis of the price action showed that the bias remained in favor of the sellers. On the other hand, if Bitcoin climbs to $28k, it could signal an uptrend.
Can the bulls drive Bitcoin past $27.4k next?
The market structure of Bitcoin on the daily timeframe was bearish. The structure shifted on 21 April when BTC dipped below a recent higher low. Since then, the price has trended lower on the chart.
Moreover, the trading volume has been extremely low from April onward, compared to the volume seen in February and March. This was reflected on the OBV as well, which only went slightly lower in May in contrast to the rapid gains it posted in mid-March.
The Fibonacci levels based on the recent leg down show that Bitcoin was likely headed toward $24.8k. The 61.8% extension level at $23.3k was also a target it presented. The price action showed that the $24.2k-$24.4k region could serve as strong support. Beneath that, the $22.4k and $21.5k levels were important.
To signal a bullish shift in the structure, Bitcoin prices must rise back above the recent lower high at $27.4k. Yet, an uptrend would not be established there, as BTC would need to form a higher low and continue higher. Cautious investors can wait for this turn of events before looking to buy.
On Saturday, BTC extended the winning streak to three sessions, gaining 0.67% to end the day at $26,535.
SEC v Binance news delivered a breakout morning session before profit-taking left BTC with modest gains.
The technical indicators turned bullish, signaling a return to $27,000.
On Saturday, bitcoin (BTC) gained 0.67%. Following a 2.92% rally on Friday, BTC ended the day at $26,535. Significantly, BTC enjoyed its first three-day winning streak since May.
A mixed start to the day saw BTC fall to an early afternoon low of $26,202. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $25,523, BTC rose to a late morning high of $26,857. However, falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $26,882, BTC eased back to sub-$26,500 and a range-bound afternoon session.
SEC v Binance News Delivered Brief Relief
On Saturday, news of Binance striking a deal to address the SEC’s motion to freeze Binance US assets supported a breakout morning.
Binance, Binance US, and the SEC agreed on a deal restricting access to customer funds to Binance US employees. The agreement prevents Binance Holdings staff from having access to private keys for US wallets.
The SEC filed a motion to freeze the assets of Binance US shortly after filing charges against Binance, Binance US, and Binance CEO CZ.
On Saturday, the US Court signed off on the deal, which allows Binance to repatriate all US customer funds and private keys onshore to nullify the motion to freeze.
While the news was positive, Binance US and Binance face charges that could drag on and further impact the US digital asset space.
Uncertainty toward the SEC v Ripple case remains another headwind, with optimism of a Ripple win fading after the release of the Hinman speech-related docs.
The Day Ahead
It is a quiet Sunday session, with no US economic indicators to provide direction. The lack of external market forces will leave BTC in the hands of the crypto market news wires.
SEC activity remains the focal point, with SEC v Ripple, Binance, and Coinbase (COIN)-related news likely to move the dial.
We also expect market sensitivity to lawmaker chatter. US lawmakers have remained silent on the William Hinman speech-related documents and the SEC charges against Binance and Coinbase.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action
This morning, BTC was down 0.05% to $26,523. A mixed start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $26,551 before falling to a low of $26,410.
BTC Technical Indicators
Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), the EMAs sent bullish signals. BTC sat above the 100-day EMA ($26,269). The 50-day EMA closed in on the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMA, sending bullish signals.
A move through the 200-day EMA ($26,654) would support a breakout from R1 ($26,861) to target R2 ($27,186). However, a fall through the 100-day EMA ($26,269) and S1 ($26,206) would bring the 50-day EMA ($26,059) into view. A fall through the 50-day EMA would send a bearish signal.
Resistance & Support Levels
R1 – $ 26,861 S1 – $ 26,206
R2 – $ 27,186 S2 – $ 25,876
R3 – $ 27,841 S3 – $ 25,221
BTC needs to move through the $26,531 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $26,861 and $27,500. A move through the Saturday high of $26,857 would signal an extended bullish session. The crypto news wires should be crypto-friendly to support an extended rally.
In the event of an extended rally, BTC would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $27,186 and resistance at $27,500. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $27,841.
Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $26,206 in play. However, barring a risk-off-fueled sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$26,000 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $25,876. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $25,221.
BTC was flat this morning, with regulatory uncertainty stemming from the SEC lawsuits against Ripple, Binance, and Coinbase testing buyer appetite.
The market structure and momentum of Bitcoin was bearish, but its bounce back above $26k gave bears some food for thought.
Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 turned negative over May. This meant that the index has an overall bullish outlook, but Bitcoin has trended in the opposite direction in recent weeks. The increasing hostility from regulatory bodies in the United States has played a part in BTC’s misfortunes on the price chart.
There was an argument to be made that Bitcoin showed some signs of recovery. Yet, an analysis of the price action showed that the bias remained in favor of the sellers. On the other hand, if Bitcoin climbs to $28k, it could signal an uptrend.
Can the bulls drive Bitcoin past $27.4k next?
The market structure of Bitcoin on the daily timeframe was bearish. The structure shifted on 21 April when BTC dipped below a recent higher low. Since then, the price has trended lower on the chart.
Moreover, the trading volume has been extremely low from April onward, compared to the volume seen in February and March. This was reflected on the OBV as well, which only went slightly lower in May in contrast to the rapid gains it posted in mid-March.
The Fibonacci levels based on the recent leg down show that Bitcoin was likely headed toward $24.8k. The 61.8% extension level at $23.3k was also a target it presented. The price action showed that the $24.2k-$24.4k region could serve as strong support. Beneath that, the $22.4k and $21.5k levels were important.
To signal a bullish shift in the structure, Bitcoin prices must rise back above the recent lower high at $27.4k. Yet, an uptrend would not be established there, as BTC would need to form a higher low and continue higher. Cautious investors can wait for this turn of events before looking to buy.
On Saturday, BTC extended the winning streak to three sessions, gaining 0.67% to end the day at $26,535.
SEC v Binance news delivered a breakout morning session before profit-taking left BTC with modest gains.
The technical indicators turned bullish, signaling a return to $27,000.
On Saturday, bitcoin (BTC) gained 0.67%. Following a 2.92% rally on Friday, BTC ended the day at $26,535. Significantly, BTC enjoyed its first three-day winning streak since May.
A mixed start to the day saw BTC fall to an early afternoon low of $26,202. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $25,523, BTC rose to a late morning high of $26,857. However, falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $26,882, BTC eased back to sub-$26,500 and a range-bound afternoon session.
SEC v Binance News Delivered Brief Relief
On Saturday, news of Binance striking a deal to address the SEC’s motion to freeze Binance US assets supported a breakout morning.
Binance, Binance US, and the SEC agreed on a deal restricting access to customer funds to Binance US employees. The agreement prevents Binance Holdings staff from having access to private keys for US wallets.
The SEC filed a motion to freeze the assets of Binance US shortly after filing charges against Binance, Binance US, and Binance CEO CZ.
On Saturday, the US Court signed off on the deal, which allows Binance to repatriate all US customer funds and private keys onshore to nullify the motion to freeze.
While the news was positive, Binance US and Binance face charges that could drag on and further impact the US digital asset space.
Uncertainty toward the SEC v Ripple case remains another headwind, with optimism of a Ripple win fading after the release of the Hinman speech-related docs.
The Day Ahead
It is a quiet Sunday session, with no US economic indicators to provide direction. The lack of external market forces will leave BTC in the hands of the crypto market news wires.
SEC activity remains the focal point, with SEC v Ripple, Binance, and Coinbase (COIN)-related news likely to move the dial.
We also expect market sensitivity to lawmaker chatter. US lawmakers have remained silent on the William Hinman speech-related documents and the SEC charges against Binance and Coinbase.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action
This morning, BTC was down 0.05% to $26,523. A mixed start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $26,551 before falling to a low of $26,410.
BTC Technical Indicators
Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), the EMAs sent bullish signals. BTC sat above the 100-day EMA ($26,269). The 50-day EMA closed in on the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMA, sending bullish signals.
A move through the 200-day EMA ($26,654) would support a breakout from R1 ($26,861) to target R2 ($27,186). However, a fall through the 100-day EMA ($26,269) and S1 ($26,206) would bring the 50-day EMA ($26,059) into view. A fall through the 50-day EMA would send a bearish signal.
Resistance & Support Levels
R1 – $ 26,861 S1 – $ 26,206
R2 – $ 27,186 S2 – $ 25,876
R3 – $ 27,841 S3 – $ 25,221
BTC needs to move through the $26,531 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $26,861 and $27,500. A move through the Saturday high of $26,857 would signal an extended bullish session. The crypto news wires should be crypto-friendly to support an extended rally.
In the event of an extended rally, BTC would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $27,186 and resistance at $27,500. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $27,841.
Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $26,206 in play. However, barring a risk-off-fueled sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$26,000 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $25,876. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $25,221.
Comment:
Wall Street Extends Gain Ahead of CPI Data
US stocks closed higher on Tuesday, extending gains for the second session, as investors looked forward to the key inflation report due tomorrow. The Dow Jones finished over 316 points higher, as Salesforce rose 3.9% after the company announced it will be increasing list prices an average of 9% in August. 3M and Boeing were also among the top performers and advanced by 4.8% and 2.6%, respectively. The S&P 500 gained nearly 0.7%, led by the energy sector as APA (+6.3%), Halliburton (+4.2%) and Schlumberger (+4.5%) outperformed. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq added 0.5%. Traders were also digesting comments from several Fed officials which continued to point to the need of further tightening this year. The odds for a 25bps increase in the fed funds rate this year currently stand at 95%, but investors remain divided about another rate hike. The economic calendar is soft today and the earnings season kicks off later in the week.
US stocks closed higher on Tuesday, extending gains for the second session, as investors looked forward to the key inflation report due tomorrow. The Dow Jones finished over 316 points higher, as Salesforce rose 3.9% after the company announced it will be increasing list prices an average of 9% in August. 3M and Boeing were also among the top performers and advanced by 4.8% and 2.6%, respectively. The S&P 500 gained nearly 0.7%, led by the energy sector as APA (+6.3%), Halliburton (+4.2%) and Schlumberger (+4.5%) outperformed. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq added 0.5%. Traders were also digesting comments from several Fed officials which continued to point to the need of further tightening this year. The odds for a 25bps increase in the fed funds rate this year currently stand at 95%, but investors remain divided about another rate hike. The economic calendar is soft today and the earnings season kicks off later in the week.
Comment:
Wall Street Extends Gain Ahead of CPI Data
US stocks closed higher on Tuesday, extending gains for the second session, as investors looked forward to the key inflation report due tomorrow. The Dow Jones finished over 316 points higher, as Salesforce rose 3.9% after the company announced it will be increasing list prices an average of 9% in August. 3M and Boeing were also among the top performers and advanced by 4.8% and 2.6%, respectively. The S&P 500 gained nearly 0.7%, led by the energy sector as APA (+6.3%), Halliburton (+4.2%) and Schlumberger (+4.5%) outperformed. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq added 0.5%. Traders were also digesting comments from several Fed officials which continued to point to the need of further tightening this year. The odds for a 25bps increase in the fed funds rate this year currently stand at 95%, but investors remain divided about another rate hike. The economic calendar is soft today and the earnings season kicks off later in the week.
US stocks closed higher on Tuesday, extending gains for the second session, as investors looked forward to the key inflation report due tomorrow. The Dow Jones finished over 316 points higher, as Salesforce rose 3.9% after the company announced it will be increasing list prices an average of 9% in August. 3M and Boeing were also among the top performers and advanced by 4.8% and 2.6%, respectively. The S&P 500 gained nearly 0.7%, led by the energy sector as APA (+6.3%), Halliburton (+4.2%) and Schlumberger (+4.5%) outperformed. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq added 0.5%. Traders were also digesting comments from several Fed officials which continued to point to the need of further tightening this year. The odds for a 25bps increase in the fed funds rate this year currently stand at 95%, but investors remain divided about another rate hike. The economic calendar is soft today and the earnings season kicks off later in the week.
Comment:
US Stocks Pop on Cooling Inflation
All major US stocks indexes were trading in the green on Wednesday afternoon as June CPI data came cooler-than-expected, raising hopes that Fed officials might rethink their stance on more rate hikes. The Dow Jones was up more than 100 points after reaching the highest level since November earlier in the session, as Salesforce, Goldman Sachs and Home Depot outperformed, adding nearly 2% each. The S&P 500 gained 0.8%, a level not seen since April of 2022, led by shares in the consumer discretionary, tech and basic materials sectors. The Nasdaq was up about 1.2%, also the highest since April last year. Bank stocks advanced firmly, with Citigroup and Goldman Sachs adding 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Also, regional banks such as Comerica(5.1%) and Zions Bancorporation (4.9%). In the news, Domino's Pizza surged over 11% after revealing its deal with Uber Eats.
All major US stocks indexes were trading in the green on Wednesday afternoon as June CPI data came cooler-than-expected, raising hopes that Fed officials might rethink their stance on more rate hikes. The Dow Jones was up more than 100 points after reaching the highest level since November earlier in the session, as Salesforce, Goldman Sachs and Home Depot outperformed, adding nearly 2% each. The S&P 500 gained 0.8%, a level not seen since April of 2022, led by shares in the consumer discretionary, tech and basic materials sectors. The Nasdaq was up about 1.2%, also the highest since April last year. Bank stocks advanced firmly, with Citigroup and Goldman Sachs adding 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Also, regional banks such as Comerica(5.1%) and Zions Bancorporation (4.9%). In the news, Domino's Pizza surged over 11% after revealing its deal with Uber Eats.Japanese Yen attempting fifth consecutive daily advance (first time since December)
USD/JPY plunge now approaching major support confluence- risk for price inflection
Resistance 140.10s, 140.93, 142.10/50 (key)- support 137.36/91, 136.15, 134.04
The Japanese Yen has continued to coil just below uptrend resistance with major event risk on tap into the close of the week. The focus is on a breakout of the monthly opening-range for guidance. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/JPY short-term technical charts.
Initial resistance now eyed at the 75% parallel (blue slope currently ~140.10s) backed by the objective May high at 140.93. Ultimately, a breach / close above the weekly open / 61.8% retracement of the 2022 decline at 142.10/50 would be needed to mark resumption of the broader USD/JPY uptrend.
Bottom line: The USD/JPY plunge us approaching the first major technical support hurdle just below the 138-handle. From at trading standpoint, look to reduce portions of short-exposure / lower protective stops on a stretch towards this key support zone – rallies should be limited to the weekly open IF price is heading lower on this stretch. I’ll publish an updated Japanese Yen Weekly Forecast once we get further clarity on the longer-term USD/JPY technical trade levels.
All major US stocks indexes were trading in the green on Wednesday afternoon as June CPI data came cooler-than-expected, raising hopes that Fed officials might rethink their stance on more rate hikes. The Dow Jones was up more than 100 points after reaching the highest level since November earlier in the session, as Salesforce, Goldman Sachs and Home Depot outperformed, adding nearly 2% each. The S&P 500 gained 0.8%, a level not seen since April of 2022, led by shares in the consumer discretionary, tech and basic materials sectors. The Nasdaq was up about 1.2%, also the highest since April last year. Bank stocks advanced firmly, with Citigroup and Goldman Sachs adding 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Also, regional banks such as Comerica(5.1%) and Zions Bancorporation (4.9%). In the news, Domino's Pizza surged over 11% after revealing its deal with Uber Eats.
All major US stocks indexes were trading in the green on Wednesday afternoon as June CPI data came cooler-than-expected, raising hopes that Fed officials might rethink their stance on more rate hikes. The Dow Jones was up more than 100 points after reaching the highest level since November earlier in the session, as Salesforce, Goldman Sachs and Home Depot outperformed, adding nearly 2% each. The S&P 500 gained 0.8%, a level not seen since April of 2022, led by shares in the consumer discretionary, tech and basic materials sectors. The Nasdaq was up about 1.2%, also the highest since April last year. Bank stocks advanced firmly, with Citigroup and Goldman Sachs adding 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Also, regional banks such as Comerica(5.1%) and Zions Bancorporation (4.9%). In the news, Domino's Pizza surged over 11% after revealing its deal with Uber Eats.Japanese Yen attempting fifth consecutive daily advance (first time since December)
USD/JPY plunge now approaching major support confluence- risk for price inflection
Resistance 140.10s, 140.93, 142.10/50 (key)- support 137.36/91, 136.15, 134.04
The Japanese Yen has continued to coil just below uptrend resistance with major event risk on tap into the close of the week. The focus is on a breakout of the monthly opening-range for guidance. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/JPY short-term technical charts.
Initial resistance now eyed at the 75% parallel (blue slope currently ~140.10s) backed by the objective May high at 140.93. Ultimately, a breach / close above the weekly open / 61.8% retracement of the 2022 decline at 142.10/50 would be needed to mark resumption of the broader USD/JPY uptrend.
Bottom line: The USD/JPY plunge us approaching the first major technical support hurdle just below the 138-handle. From at trading standpoint, look to reduce portions of short-exposure / lower protective stops on a stretch towards this key support zone – rallies should be limited to the weekly open IF price is heading lower on this stretch. I’ll publish an updated Japanese Yen Weekly Forecast once we get further clarity on the longer-term USD/JPY technical trade levels.
Comment:
US Futures Steady Ahead of Major Bank Earnings
US stock futures held steady on Friday after four-day winning streak on Wall Street as investors look ahead to earnings reports from major banks. Futures contracts tied to the three major indexes were all trading near breakeven. In regular trading on Thursday, the Dow rose 0.14%, the S&P 500 gained 0.85% and the Nasdaq Composite rallied 1.58%, with nine out of the 11 S&P sectors ending higher led to the upside by communication services, technology and consumer discretionary. Those gains came as the latest producer price index report showed inflation rose less than anticipated in June, adding to signs that US inflation is on a downward trend and raising hopes that the current tightening cycle is nearing the end. Investors now await earnings reports from big banks such as JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Citi on Friday for more clues on the economy. US consumer sentiment data from the University of Michigan is also on deck.
US stock futures held steady on Friday after four-day winning streak on Wall Street as investors look ahead to earnings reports from major banks. Futures contracts tied to the three major indexes were all trading near breakeven. In regular trading on Thursday, the Dow rose 0.14%, the S&P 500 gained 0.85% and the Nasdaq Composite rallied 1.58%, with nine out of the 11 S&P sectors ending higher led to the upside by communication services, technology and consumer discretionary. Those gains came as the latest producer price index report showed inflation rose less than anticipated in June, adding to signs that US inflation is on a downward trend and raising hopes that the current tightening cycle is nearing the end. Investors now await earnings reports from big banks such as JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Citi on Friday for more clues on the economy. US consumer sentiment data from the University of Michigan is also on deck.
Comment:
Trade is open
US stocks rose on Monday, with the Dow Jones up more than 50 points, and the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq up 0.4% and 0.6% respectively, as investors remained hopeful about a debt ceiling deal following successful staff-level negotiations over the weekend. President Joe Biden is expected to host top congressional leaders on Tuesday. Tech companies outperformed after European Union regulators approved Microsoft’s proposed $69 billion acquisition of gaming firm Activision Blizzard. Additionally, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Chicago Fed economist Austan Goolsbee signaled their preference for pausing interest-rate increases, while Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari suggested the central bank may have more work to do in its inflation fight. Meanwhile, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index showed an unexpectedly big drop in manufacturing business activity this month.