Upland Software (UPLD) - The beating may be over (for now)
UPLD just ended the week with a tiny gain. This would not be noteworthy, except that coming into this week, UPLD was down for a staggering 11 (!) consecutive weeks.
The stock peaked in April this year, just underneath its ATH and subsequently drifted down. Once it fell below its VWAP-since-IPO level and couldn't regain that level, the dismal streak got started. But long streaks tend to overshoot. Eleven unrelenting losing weeks pushed UPLD dowm by almost 47% from its already depressed mid-October level. UPLD remains well below even the March 2020 pandemic low.
Long streaks like this are very rare, and when they end, they offer the potential for a fast counter-trend rally. I intend to go long UPLD on Monday. My first target would be at around $22, for about 20% gain. If the stock were to close on any day significantly below last weeks low of $17.94, I'd take a loss. And if the $22 wouldn't be reached by the end of the month, I'd also take my chips off the table.
The stock peaked in April this year, just underneath its ATH and subsequently drifted down. Once it fell below its VWAP-since-IPO level and couldn't regain that level, the dismal streak got started. But long streaks tend to overshoot. Eleven unrelenting losing weeks pushed UPLD dowm by almost 47% from its already depressed mid-October level. UPLD remains well below even the March 2020 pandemic low.
Long streaks like this are very rare, and when they end, they offer the potential for a fast counter-trend rally. I intend to go long UPLD on Monday. My first target would be at around $22, for about 20% gain. If the stock were to close on any day significantly below last weeks low of $17.94, I'd take a loss. And if the $22 wouldn't be reached by the end of the month, I'd also take my chips off the table.
Trade active:
Bouught some stock and a few Feb 20 calls on the break of $18.30.
Comment:
Big breakout day for UPLD. Today one analyst raised his target, while another lowered his. But both targets are far above the current price ($30 and $44, respectively), and both analysts rate UPLD a buy.
The stock is up 11% today, and the calls, which are now in the money, are up 150%. Still, all this does is bring UPLD back to the pandemic-panic lows of March '20. My 1st target remains at $22.
The stock is up 11% today, and the calls, which are now in the money, are up 150%. Still, all this does is bring UPLD back to the pandemic-panic lows of March '20. My 1st target remains at $22.
Also. I had hoped to get long exposure through February calls but the spreads are probably too wide to get in at an acceptable level.