UNRATE Update | December 2021 - Present
The US unemployment rate can double from here and still be within the long-term range and still below the extremes that have occurred during more recent recessions.
Also worth point out that the only time we have been below this level of unemployment (higher employment) was during the Korean war in the early 1950s. Sure, we could see the rate of employment increase - that can happen. But it's unlikely, based on 75 years of data that spans everything from Post-Keynesianism, to Real Business Cycle (RBC), to Monetarism, to MMT.
As such, it is safe to conclude that a lower UE rate, from "here", is unlikely.
So unemployment has probably bottomed, stocks are yet to recover their December 2021 highs (19 months) and the interest rate on the US10Y is up roughly 200% (having gone as high as + 215%) over the same 19-month period and currently offering a yield of 4.049%; the US10Y maintains it's lag of the US02Y, which is currently offering a yield of 4.95%. In other words, bank lending is more constrained...
Wow, even the banks are telling us there is significant risk in the market.
Meanwhile a lot of folks are running around telling you how great fake-money crypto supposedly is.
Maybe the banks are right about risk....
Oh! one more thing: the VIX has also reached a bottom of sorts.
Also worth point out that the only time we have been below this level of unemployment (higher employment) was during the Korean war in the early 1950s. Sure, we could see the rate of employment increase - that can happen. But it's unlikely, based on 75 years of data that spans everything from Post-Keynesianism, to Real Business Cycle (RBC), to Monetarism, to MMT.
As such, it is safe to conclude that a lower UE rate, from "here", is unlikely.
So unemployment has probably bottomed, stocks are yet to recover their December 2021 highs (19 months) and the interest rate on the US10Y is up roughly 200% (having gone as high as + 215%) over the same 19-month period and currently offering a yield of 4.049%; the US10Y maintains it's lag of the US02Y, which is currently offering a yield of 4.95%. In other words, bank lending is more constrained...
Wow, even the banks are telling us there is significant risk in the market.
Meanwhile a lot of folks are running around telling you how great fake-money crypto supposedly is.
Maybe the banks are right about risk....
Oh! one more thing: the VIX has also reached a bottom of sorts.