š„Not even Winston Churchill can save the FTSE from free-fallš»
The FTSE 100 chart on the monthly looks pretty bad.
We can see bearish divergence since 2007, with the market rally going off very little momentum, it briefly touched the oversold area once in 12+ years, which shows a lack of strong buying, and a bubble in the market.
The first 2 arrows show the FTSE toying with the idea of breaking the Ichimoku Cloud (a versatile indicator that defines support and resistance), with the financial arrow showing that we dropped right through it.
The bubble has now popped, the question is can we re-inflate it?
What's happening in the UK right now on the macro front
- Lockdown fully ends around July 4th
- Locals scared to leave the house
- 6 month mortgage holidays and credit card debt
- Furlough scheme is the only thing keeping people off the streets from rioting
- Businesses that were unprofitable being bailed out
- Brexit
- Peaceful protests
UK is a nation built on debt, nobody has savings (well very few).
This can be seen with 6 month mortgage holidays, the UK government paying people to stay at home and not work, badly run businesses getting bailed out.
Even the airlines cannot lose a month without going under.
With fear and lack of growth, where is the UK going to get power to recover from its all-time highs?
When the furlough ends, many on it will lose their jobs. And when the mortgage holidays end and people have no money to pay for it, what will happen next? I see lots of down-side.
There are a lot of bear cases for the FTSE 100, and very few positives.
The UK will need a sharp rebound, V-shaped for the FTSE to keep moving upwards. For now, the rally is based on hope and government stimulus, which is moving us up, will it continue?.
If you like my macro view on markets, check out my other charts as I often give macro updates on major markets like Gold, S&P, oil etc.
We can see bearish divergence since 2007, with the market rally going off very little momentum, it briefly touched the oversold area once in 12+ years, which shows a lack of strong buying, and a bubble in the market.
The first 2 arrows show the FTSE toying with the idea of breaking the Ichimoku Cloud (a versatile indicator that defines support and resistance), with the financial arrow showing that we dropped right through it.
The bubble has now popped, the question is can we re-inflate it?
What's happening in the UK right now on the macro front
- Lockdown fully ends around July 4th
- Locals scared to leave the house
- 6 month mortgage holidays and credit card debt
- Furlough scheme is the only thing keeping people off the streets from rioting
- Businesses that were unprofitable being bailed out
- Brexit
- Peaceful protests
UK is a nation built on debt, nobody has savings (well very few).
This can be seen with 6 month mortgage holidays, the UK government paying people to stay at home and not work, badly run businesses getting bailed out.
Even the airlines cannot lose a month without going under.
With fear and lack of growth, where is the UK going to get power to recover from its all-time highs?
When the furlough ends, many on it will lose their jobs. And when the mortgage holidays end and people have no money to pay for it, what will happen next? I see lots of down-side.
There are a lot of bear cases for the FTSE 100, and very few positives.
The UK will need a sharp rebound, V-shaped for the FTSE to keep moving upwards. For now, the rally is based on hope and government stimulus, which is moving us up, will it continue?.
If you like my macro view on markets, check out my other charts as I often give macro updates on major markets like Gold, S&P, oil etc.