BRENT CRUDE OIL ANALSIS - MONTHLY (1-MAR-2021)
Overall, the Brent crude oil has been on the uptrend trajectory since it reversed from its significant lowest in the 20 years in April 2020. Brent Crude Oil charted into new territory after making a new high for the year at USD64.40.
The view is optimistic that Brent will trade higher in the medium-term supported by the flattish 20, 50 & 200-month Exponential Moving Average (EMA) line and positive readings in both RSI and MACD, signifying the overall buying momentum will accelerate further.
Using Fibonacci Extension (FE), the price has reached and approximately closed at
o USD47.47 (38.2% in Nov-20),
o USD51.05 (50% in Dec-20) and
o USD54.63 (61.8% in Jan-21).
o Towards the end of Feb-2021, Brent has hit the 100% FE at USD66.21, however it reversed thereafter, indicating a strong resistance level that capped-off the potential bullish movement.
It is foreseen the need for Brent to establish a higher low base within the 20-month EMA line before the uptrend can resume and seek to test upper resistances at:
o USD70 – key psychological level
o USD74.18 (Note: Between USD70 and USD74.18 is considered as resistance zone)
o USD79.71 – Next key psychological level
o USD84.95 (161.8% FE) which almost coincides with the highest price in Oct-2018 before Brent started its downward movement.
On the flipside, support levels are:
o Support Zone 1: USD60 - USD57.40
o Support Zone 2: USD55 - USD51.05
The view is optimistic that Brent will trade higher in the medium-term supported by the flattish 20, 50 & 200-month Exponential Moving Average (EMA) line and positive readings in both RSI and MACD, signifying the overall buying momentum will accelerate further.
Using Fibonacci Extension (FE), the price has reached and approximately closed at
o USD47.47 (38.2% in Nov-20),
o USD51.05 (50% in Dec-20) and
o USD54.63 (61.8% in Jan-21).
o Towards the end of Feb-2021, Brent has hit the 100% FE at USD66.21, however it reversed thereafter, indicating a strong resistance level that capped-off the potential bullish movement.
It is foreseen the need for Brent to establish a higher low base within the 20-month EMA line before the uptrend can resume and seek to test upper resistances at:
o USD70 – key psychological level
o USD74.18 (Note: Between USD70 and USD74.18 is considered as resistance zone)
o USD79.71 – Next key psychological level
o USD84.95 (161.8% FE) which almost coincides with the highest price in Oct-2018 before Brent started its downward movement.
On the flipside, support levels are:
o Support Zone 1: USD60 - USD57.40
o Support Zone 2: USD55 - USD51.05