after showing weakness at an old resistance level, unity pulled back on low volume to a buying area, went oversold, formed a hidden bullish divergence, and printed a tight candle.
unity seems more likely to break the level this time with the moving averages showing more contraction and the 200 ma losing relevance as resistance. also, the structure down here resembles an aged wyckoff accumulation zone poised to breakout. there's more of a fundamental excuse this time too: the partnership with apple, unity's closure of the ironSource deal, restructuring to improve their earnings reports, the director not being sued for mismanagement (lol), and the generally improving market conditions.
the bearish case is that the partnership with apple is overhyped, there has been mass insider selling over the past month, institutional ownership is high, the market is overextended, there's a possible head and shoulders pattern playing out on unity's chart (which means we may be in wave a in elliott wave terms), unity needs to retest the 200 ma break first, and finally, to phrase it expressively: today's bullish divergence is tomorrow's bearish divergence.
overall, i favor the bull case more than the bear case, which i may live to regret. i'm in $1,500.00 at $39.79 average cost. target is $55; lot of people ready to sell at that zone. my stop loss isn't set but rather a guide pending developments.
unity seems more likely to break the level this time with the moving averages showing more contraction and the 200 ma losing relevance as resistance. also, the structure down here resembles an aged wyckoff accumulation zone poised to breakout. there's more of a fundamental excuse this time too: the partnership with apple, unity's closure of the ironSource deal, restructuring to improve their earnings reports, the director not being sued for mismanagement (lol), and the generally improving market conditions.
the bearish case is that the partnership with apple is overhyped, there has been mass insider selling over the past month, institutional ownership is high, the market is overextended, there's a possible head and shoulders pattern playing out on unity's chart (which means we may be in wave a in elliott wave terms), unity needs to retest the 200 ma break first, and finally, to phrase it expressively: today's bullish divergence is tomorrow's bearish divergence.
overall, i favor the bull case more than the bear case, which i may live to regret. i'm in $1,500.00 at $39.79 average cost. target is $55; lot of people ready to sell at that zone. my stop loss isn't set but rather a guide pending developments.
Trade active:
Correction: my average cost is $37.97. Too much chart-watching and number crunching.
Comment:
Finally, some good insider buying news. The director of Unity, Mr. Roelof, just acquired over a thousand shares today. And it seems he's got millions of shares in indirect ownership in the company through a capital management firm, Sequoia Capital.
Comment:
"Acquired," not bought. The price reads "0." It seems he was granted the shares in lieu of a cash award. But why? I swear, this stuff is made to be confusing.
Trade closed manually:
I sold it for a loss of around $50. We should've seen a bounce by now. The head and shoulders scenario is looking increasingly likely, as I've already seen fractals of it play out on the lower time frames. If by chance I'm wrong, I might get back in, but more probably I'm done with this stock. Apart from a few spurts of moneymaking, which I always seem to miss, it's a huge underperformer.