Just as with Rivian, I went back through Tesla and tried to look at it with fresh eyes. There are a few things that stick out to me. Before I start though you may notice I have a few different colored labels ion the chart. This is due to the many possible paths Tesla has in front of it. In the bottom right of the chart I have a list of what the colors reference to.
The first thing I want to point out is MACD during wave (2). I don't know if y'all remember but when Tesla was in that decline, I thought it was going to go further down. I think MACD may have been trying to tell us what it had planned. Notice how it made a lower low on 31 OCT? That shouldn't have been lower than that of the 21 August low. This is the first clue that the October low was most likely A vs (2). The next thing is the choppiness of the move up to $265.12 in December. I have said many times throughout this move up that I felt it should be a stronger move higher. It just seems to be weak and indecisive, both hallmarks of a corrective move. The primary count gets invalidated below $193.80.
1st ALT:
We then topped in the ideal spot for a B wave retrace and have dropped hard from that top. This is something you would expect to see from a C wave. If this turquoise count comes to fruition, then I would expect price to drop to the $170-$180 area at least. Below $151.72 and this ALT gets invalidated and removed from the chart.
2nd ALT:
This suggests that the move up from 06 Jan 2023 to the high on 19 July 2023 was all wave 1. I find this less likely due to the price action from the 27 April bottom, and the pattern MACD carved out (high on 20 June). If this is the case, I would expect price to rebound in the same area as the 1st ALT (turquoise) but the invalidation point is much lower @ $101.22.
3rd ALT:
This is perhaps the scariest of all the counts because it suggests Tesla is headed much lower, as in sub $100. This doesn't get confirmed until all other counts have been invalidated though. Due to the longer term count I have applied to this chart; I find this scenario the least likely of all the counts. I know many people say Tesla is way overvalued, and they're not wrong. There are many things in this world that are overvalued and yet people still buy and sell them. With all of the other things Tesla has going for it (battery storage, robotics, AI, global EV leader, FSD, etc.) I think it is VERY possible Tesla raises to hit new all-time highs in the not-too-distant future (couple years). Time will tell as always.
If y'all have any questions let me know in the comments. Feel free to leave a like and follow if you find his information helpful!
The first thing I want to point out is MACD during wave (2). I don't know if y'all remember but when Tesla was in that decline, I thought it was going to go further down. I think MACD may have been trying to tell us what it had planned. Notice how it made a lower low on 31 OCT? That shouldn't have been lower than that of the 21 August low. This is the first clue that the October low was most likely A vs (2). The next thing is the choppiness of the move up to $265.12 in December. I have said many times throughout this move up that I felt it should be a stronger move higher. It just seems to be weak and indecisive, both hallmarks of a corrective move. The primary count gets invalidated below $193.80.
1st ALT:
We then topped in the ideal spot for a B wave retrace and have dropped hard from that top. This is something you would expect to see from a C wave. If this turquoise count comes to fruition, then I would expect price to drop to the $170-$180 area at least. Below $151.72 and this ALT gets invalidated and removed from the chart.
2nd ALT:
This suggests that the move up from 06 Jan 2023 to the high on 19 July 2023 was all wave 1. I find this less likely due to the price action from the 27 April bottom, and the pattern MACD carved out (high on 20 June). If this is the case, I would expect price to rebound in the same area as the 1st ALT (turquoise) but the invalidation point is much lower @ $101.22.
3rd ALT:
This is perhaps the scariest of all the counts because it suggests Tesla is headed much lower, as in sub $100. This doesn't get confirmed until all other counts have been invalidated though. Due to the longer term count I have applied to this chart; I find this scenario the least likely of all the counts. I know many people say Tesla is way overvalued, and they're not wrong. There are many things in this world that are overvalued and yet people still buy and sell them. With all of the other things Tesla has going for it (battery storage, robotics, AI, global EV leader, FSD, etc.) I think it is VERY possible Tesla raises to hit new all-time highs in the not-too-distant future (couple years). Time will tell as always.
If y'all have any questions let me know in the comments. Feel free to leave a like and follow if you find his information helpful!
Comment:
There isn't really much that has changed since I made this post. It is still valid and has all my main thoughts on it so I will just add an update to it for now. Looking at the 1HR chart we are in the normal end point for wave ii. This week should answer many questions for us. But when does Tesla cooperate lately?
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Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
