After shorting TSLA in the low to mid 900’s I’d initially had a target around 400 (think it’d go a little lower). I still have a long term sell target in this area, but I will probably get to sell up high again after we see another run up into a new high with a top around $1,150.
This move would be most likely to happen either in another parabolic move or with a consistent grinding up move. In both instances there should be few bearish moves. The market will keep moving higher. This would start from around 660, after a false breakout to trap sellers.
If price is unable to break through 650 the drop will have only been a bit over a third of the last swing up. Drops under 40% can be ‘precursor sell offs’. These tells us to watch for first a strong bull move, and then a topping pattern. There should be a strong false breakout (no big dips) and we look for signs of it ending when the swing is about 1.6* the drop.
If Tesla breaks under 650 this all becomes invalid and I will start to short again, but at this point I am going to take profit on my shorts 675. I’ll buy 667 with a stop 638 and target 1,050. A Tesla bounce from this level would present a huge opportunity, to those who remember to take profit.
I think all of this is just going to set up a much bigger crash. I’ll start to look for short positions again around 1,100.